Kudrin on the future of the Russian economy: without scriptvalium, but with a “robust” budget and barely noticeable growth
Cryptocurrencies in Russia will not be legalized in the next two to three years, said Alexei Kudrin
The head of the Center for strategic initiatives, former Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin gave a forecast about the future of the Russian economy: growth without reforms will be barely noticeable, scriptually in the foreseeable future is not legalized, and the budget will be very conservative, with low spending on education and health.
Kudrin spoke at the Fair a financial and exchange services Finfair in Moscow. His remarks quoted by TASS.
Cryptocurrencies in Russia will not be legalized in the next two to three years, says the economist. “I think these years will be spent on the development of new standards of regulation and protection of citizens”, – he said. According to the financier, it will take at least two to three years: “It’s not a quick process. State agencies will not dare to promote the legalization of instruments, future development and the protection of which may not provide”.
Economy can grow by up to 2% per year, if not implemented reforms and is reinforced the role of institutions, Kudrin said. On the weakness of the institution of ownership and the judicial system in Russia also indicated that experts of the WEF in its global ranking.
Kudrin said that the average rate of growth of the Russian economy over the last 10 years was only 1% per year given the crisis of 2008 and recession in 2015-2016. “This is one of the lowest growth rates for this period in the history of the Soviet Union and Russia since the end of 1920-ies, except during the war and the period 1990-ies, when was the transition to a new type of economy”, – he stressed.
If there is no reform, in the future, GDP growth will not exceed 2%: “Today we need to strengthen the role of governors to enhance the role of members of the government within the framework of certain powers, the rules clearly establish the activities of institutions related to law enforcement. And first of all economic institutions.”
The draft budget for 2018 Kudrin was praised for its realism, but called it too conservative. “Of course, it leads to further consolidate the budget system, as there is a risk of low income at low oil prices. On the other hand, I believe that a fiscal rule that targets the price of 40 dollars per barrel of oil, too hard. I think that could be $ 45 per barrel, and this difference gives 450 billion rubles to the budget system… We will, I hope, will see this in the next two to three years. There is some excessive spending on education, health and infrastructure, but overall the budget is made with margin of safety”.
The fiscal rule limits the maximum amount of expenses calculated depending on the limit prices of oil. If the real price is higher, the excess goes into the Reserve Fund and national welfare Fund.
