Kerry in Moscow: Berlin left to fight alone

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Керри в Москве: Берлин оставлен сражаться в одиночестве

 

.Rostislav Ishchenko

Sunday arrived in Moscow U.S. Secretary of state John Kerry and German foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier. But apparently, arrived for different reasons and with different goals. What? Let’s see, at the same time noting that the German diplomat arrived, this time alone, without French colleagues, as has happened before.

 

You need US

Kerry in Moscow is planning to negotiate about the situation in Syria, where Russia has promised to strike the violators of the truce unilaterally. He wants to talk to Lavrov, even on joint counter the terrorist threat in connection with the bombings in Brussels.

But the Ukrainian crisis on the list of priorities does not appear. Moreover, the American side did not satisfy the desire of Berlin to organize a trilateral meeting of Lavrov, Kerry and Steinmeier.

This is evidence that Washington does not consider the subject of perspective and winning for themselves. The Germans asked, with a predictable result, to take the rap on the “Eastern front” for the collective mistakes of the West. However, over the last hundred years it has become a good tradition.

 

You need Germany

What Steinmeier? With the Russian side, he discussed the problems of implementation of the Minsk agreements and the situation in Syria. It is clear that the main to Steinmeier was the issue of the Minsk agreements. On Syria, he simply spoke in favor of the ceasefire, in support of the peace process and continued efforts of the international community in General and Russia in particular in the stabilization of the situation.

What else was he to say?

Germany need to stop the flow of refugees, loosening the foundations of the EU and calling into question the preservation of Angela Merkel to the post of Federal Chancellor after the elections to the Bundestag, to be held in September 2017. While real levers of influence on the situation in the middle East of Germany (unlike Russia and the US) has not, and the agreement with Turkey was short-lived. Erdogan agree to receive EU money on supporting the refugees (who will pay, of course, Germany), but it is not going to restrict their flow to Europe. One can only hope the peacekeeping efforts of Russia.

 

But in the Ukrainian crisis Germany is involved directly as a participant of the Normandy and Minsk processes. And then it’s time to remember French counterpart Steinmeier of Jean-Marc Ayrault.

Jean-Marc Ayrault Minister of foreign Affairs of France. His predecessor Laurent Fabius, he succeeded only on 11 February 2016 and yet virtually unknown to the General Russian public.

Previously, Paris and Berlin has always acted jointly. At the meeting in Ukraine at the level of experts, foreign Ministers and heads of state always arrived with appropriate representatives of the two leading EU countries. Thus all, and in the first place — Russia, demonstrated the coherence of France and Germany, the unity of their positions.

Now Steinmeier arrived in Moscow alone. Judging by his statement ahead of the visit, the most important is the issue of holding elections in the Donbass. The solution to this particular problem he’s going to look for during negotiations.

What Russia needs

Russia (through its representative in the contact group of Boris Gryzlov) and DNR submitted on the negotiations Denis Pushilin before the discussion, also indicated his position.

Moscow and Donetsk want and consider the possible conduct of elections in accordance with the Minsk package of measures until July 2016. The only problem in Ukraine, whose representative in the Minsk group Roman Bezsmertny has repeatedly and publicly denied this not only in 2016, but in 2017.

 

Moscow and Donetsk Berlin actually said to the Minister that they fully agree with his position, but disagree Kiev. Leverage over the Kiev government are in the hands of who supported the coup of February 2014 (which was the cause of the civil war) the EU and Kiev has taken custody of the United States.

Here Russia and the West can not help you. With his clients he will have to cope on their own.

What should Kiev

However, the problem of the West, the EU and Germany is that to force Kiev to fulfill the Minsk agreements. Ukrainian authorities are ready to leave the pensioners without pensions, working citizens are not only without salary, but without work, without income budget.

They are ready for everything but peace in the Donbas region since the end of the civil war in Ukraine would mean an end to the reign of the current regime.

No more “country-aggressor,” the “repulse” which is mobilized Maidan part of Ukrainian society. It will be impossible to prevent “separatist” party for lack of the separatists. It will be impossible to convince impoverished people that the Ukrainian economy consumes Putin, who makes the “separatists” in the Donbass “fire themselves”, for what reason close why not Donetsk, and Lviv, Kiev, Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye enterprise.

It will be necessary to disarm the “heroes of Ukraine” marauding and rampaging across the country, including the capital. You have to be responsible for its economic policies. And, worst of all, you will need to explain to the population what such “separatists” fought for two years that killed tens of thousands of people, and at the same time — to investigate thousands of cases of war crimes and crimes against humanity, including those by top leaders of the Kiev regime.

For particular persons, from the President to the last member of the Cossack in Parliament, it would mean loss of status, power, property, freedom, and for those who are not lucky enough to fall into the hands of its own citizens — and life. They go no way.

Why didn’t France

But Steinmeier and Merkel on the settlement of Ukraine it is necessary blood from a nose. They tied his political career with the Minsk process, hoping that, in the face of Poroshenko have an adequate partner, who will strictly perform their commitments. They made a mistake.

And now Steinmeier is trying to persuade Moscow to close their eyes to the failure of Kiev to fulfil its part of the Minsk agreements and to force the Donbass to hold at least the imitation of elections.

A hopeless exercise. Up until Kiev will not begin at least formally, the process of amending the Constitution and adaptation of the electoral law to the conditions of Minsk, elections in DNR/LNR can pass only by local laws. But it does not suit Kiev.

That is why, realizing that the situation is at an impasse that is favorable to the West is no solution, from participation in negotiations is gently eliminated by the French.

While you had the chance to play a significant mediating role and to obtain on foreign and domestic dividends, the French were active, though not conducted an independent line, allowing Germany to formulate a common position of the EU.

Once it became clear that, in addition to troubles, Ukraine can not give anything, gently distanced France, giving Germany the right to deal with their problems.

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