It is difficult to speak about the economy after this Message


Трудно говорить об экономике после такого Послания

Because the Message is not primarily about the economy, it was “nuclear” Message. But he forced himself, is necessary.

As recognized by the President, Russia already is in the arms race. Well, that is the main answer to the question why 2014-2015-2016-2017 years real disposable incomes of the population fell cumulatively by approximately 11%. Started 2018 year, we also with the fall of this important figure (almost 7%), that’s just Rosstat has managed to bring all of 0% by means of statistical tricks (did not take into account one-off cash payment to pensioners in 5000 rubles in January 2018).

If someone says that the crisis and sanctions are to blame, let us not forget that in 2017 were recorded GDP growth of 1.5% compared with the year 2016, and people’s incomes are still falling. What kind of economic growth in which people live worse and worse?

Now about the economic objectives of the Message. Focus only on one, but, in my opinion, the most ambitious in the middle of the next decade we must increase GDP per capita by 1.5 times, i.e. 50%. So, the average annual GDP growth rate should be for the next 8 years, 5.2%, and because the population is unlikely to change much during this time.

Does anyone believe that? Let me remind you that the official forecast of Ministry of economic development GDP growth in 2018 to be 2.1%, in 2019 — 2.2%, in 2020 is 2.2%. These numbers are also unrealistic.

Understand that if you consider the GDP in US dollars at purchasing power parity, the picture may be somewhat better due to changes in currency exchange rates, but, in any case, unrealistic tasks seems too obvious.

Background: according to the IMF, GDP per capita in Russia (PPP) at the end of 2017 amounted to 27899,5 USD. The growth of this indicator in 1,5 times brought to Russia among the most developed countries of the world. Does anyone believe that by 2025, the standard of living in Russia will reach such heights? — No, this, of course, unfortunately, will not.

The task of increasing GDP per capita by 1.5 times to the middle of the next decade, there is no doubt, will join a rather large list of unfulfilled goals and unresolved challenges, which were staged in our country in 2000 years. By the way, made the goal to halve the poverty level in 6 years was forced to recall the following fact: the task of overcoming poverty was raised in the presidential address even back in 2003, that is 15 (!) years ago. And now 15 years later, now the Message 2018, we again hear that we need to reduce the level of poverty… by the Way, the difference in the formulation is noticed? — If at the beginning of the XXI century wanted to overcome poverty, today my only dream is about making it only reduce. It may be true, because the weapons are our main priority.


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