ISIS is moving. Whether Sinai new base for international terrorism

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ИГИЛ переезжает. Станет ли Синай новой базой международного терроризма

The largest in Egypt’s history, the attack showed that the Sinai is now one of the most attractive places in the world for terrorists. Al-Qaeda, ISIS have big plans for this mountainous, barren countryside with a long coastline. If the Egyptian army does not hold the necessary reforms, the Peninsula will soon become the new likeness of Raqqa and Mosul, spreading further instability in the Middle East

While in Syria are counting down the last days until the final defeat of ISIL (banned in Russia), international terrorism proves that’s not going to disappear. On Friday, shortly after the muezzin finished his vociferous call to prayer, and much of the male population of the Egyptian city of bir-al-Abd had gathered in the mosque of ar-Raud, the whirlwind swept “land Rover”, over which waved the black flags of ISIS. Through the split second I heard a terrible explosion, then another, two together and one at the end. The blast wave has not yet settled, and the air is filled with the staccato sounds of gunfire from automatic weapons, the screams of the wounded and crying children.

Five hundred dead, over a hundred and fifty wounded. Now little-known even by Egyptian standards, the city of bir al-Abd will forever go down in history as the place where was perpetrated the worst terrorist attack in the history of modern Egypt. ISIS denied involvement in the attack, but so far everything points to the fact that only this organization could stand behind the crime (denial of responsibility is a common tactic among jihadist organizations).

The war in the Sinai is years. She did not stop for a minute, despite the confident statements of the Egyptian military that the situation in the sphere of security is improving, and their stories about the liquidated terrorists (the account in the official reports exceeded one thousand people) and defeat the terrorist bases. International media report only the major terrorist attacks in the Sinai, where the ten or more victims. However, attacks on police stations, military shootings at checkpoints and raids on military bases and state institutions occur almost daily.

However, the approach of Egyptian authorities towards the protection of public centers where there are hundreds and even thousands of people, yet has not undergone significant changes. For example, Masjid ar-Raud in bir-al-Abd is practically not guarded, and infinite checkpoint, through which with great difficulty passing local Bedouins did not help to detect a group of terrorists, consisting of three dozen people and several cars. In fact, praying in the mosque of ar-Raud was a defenseless target for those whose goal is to kill as many people as possible.

The fight for territory?

The terrorist attack in bir al-Abd the biggest, but not the first in recent years in Sinai. About half a year ago near the town of Sheikh Suweida was discovered decapitated bodies – the stamp and signature of the ISIS. In attacks on police stations repeatedly killed civilians. And yet a terrorist attack in the mosque of ar-Raud unique though, because this is the first terrorist attack in the mosque, committed on the territory of Egypt. Early affected were churches, hotels, tour groups, military and police facilities, metro station.

Experts have determined that the mosque in the bir al-Abd was a Sufi. However, praying there are not only followers of local Sufi orders, but also ordinary Muslims, not having to Sufi mysticism irrelevant. From the point of view of the fanatics of ISIS, the Sufis are not Muslims. They, as Shia are considered apostates, which can not be forgiven. And yet still no one from Sufi mosques in Egypt (unlike, for example, from Libya), the terrorists did not touch.

Many among the worshippers of the Sufis and others – belonged to a powerful and numerous tribe savarka, in the past known for its collaboration with “al-Qaeda”, and then with the local branch of ISIS. According to Egyptian media, in recent months, the military was able to lure the elders of the tribe to his side to deprive the terrorists of the support of the local population.

Like it or not, is almost impossible to verify, because the Northern Sinai for several years closed to journalists and international observers to the territory. But if the version with the change of loyalty is proven, then it’s safe to say that the attack is revenge for the betrayal. The sphere of influence of ISIS no one goes unpunished.

In addition to the anti-terrorist war in the Sinai is another one between two terrorist entities: LIH and “al Qaeda”. Despite the defeat that the organization of Osama bin Laden suffered in Iraq and Syria, al-Qaida has not ceased to exist and has not sworn allegiance to the “Islamic state”, citing ideological differences. Endless and porous sea and land borders of Sinai contributed to the continuous influx into the Peninsula of sophisticated weapons from Libya, as well as people who arrived there from all over the Middle East, from Gaza to Iraq.

Whether the attack was another stage in the struggle between the two predators, one of which has strengthened significantly due to arriving from the ruins of Mosul and Raqqa jihadists? Can the Peninsula where the Egyptian army years cannot end the activities of terrorists become the next reincarnation of pseudoalpina? Obviously not finished in Syria and Iraq, the jihadists find shelter in the vast expanses of Sinai, but in contrast to Syria and Iraq where they can’t capture a city and administrative resources and to replicate the model of ISIS on the Egyptian ground.

It is possible that, having failed to take control of territory and population, ISIS terrorists will test on Sinai of old, well known since the Afghan camps “al-Qaeda” formula: not-so-important area, but the process. That is, begin to carry out attacks against the infidels, to which in the interpretation of the ideologues of ISIS are primarily Arab regimes.

In July 2015 an attempt to capture the town of Sheikh zuveyd ended in a bloodbath, and the next day it became clear that to hold the city under their control, the Islamists failed, and since then never tried again. Perhaps this goal are now removed from the list of priorities gathered at Sinai for the terrorists, who managed to fight in Syria, Iraq and Libya. However, a change of tactics does not mean that ISIS will not be able to settle in the Sinai and make it a new centre of operations in the middle East. The question is whether the Egyptian regime contribute to isolate the terrorists and prevent their fusion with the local population.

Bedouin and Pharaoh

Long before the Arab spring, when millions of people in the Middle East protest against corrupt regimes in their countries, in Northern Sinai was unfolding opium war between drug traffickers, smugglers and the Egyptian army. A common language between the Sinai Bedouins and the Central authorities in Cairo and was not found.

From the perspective of Cairo, the Sinai, especially its troubled Northern part, was exclusively a source of problems. Funds in development and infrastructure construction of roads, schools and hospitals are not investing, travel fever of the Northern Sinai is not touched. The local people called the Egyptians from the other side of the Suez canal “Pharaoh”, considering them outsiders. In Cairo he spoke disparagingly about the Bedouins, who continued to adhere to the nomadic way of life. In 2000-ies, when the global Islamic terrorism raised its head, this wave has come to Sinai. Already in 2004-2005, it was obvious that some tribes are actively cooperating with “al-Qaeda” and provide its people with shelter and refuge. Of course, not free.

And after the start of the Arab spring, when Egypt was in chaos and anarchy, in the Sinai there are new owners. A terrorist group that have attacked military bases and police stations, and then on the pipeline through which the gas went from Egypt to Israel, called themselves “Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (Defenders of Jerusalem”). As a result of her actions Egypt has stopped gas supplies to Israel. After thirteen explosions, it became clear that to protect the whole pipeline, and cooperation between the two countries in this field came to an end.

Then on the Egyptian political scene appears energetic and active General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who became the first chief of staff and then defense Minister. He personally went to Sinai, met with soldiers and after the next major terrorist attack announced the beginning of “operation eagle” to destroy the terrorists. About the end of this operation, which began in 2012, history is silent.

With the permission of Israel to Sinai introduced additional military units (Israel gave the nod to the Egyptian request, which fit into the terms of the camp David accords), then a significant amount of heavy equipment. The war was declared Palestinian movement Hamas, the border between Gaza and Sinai has been cleaned dozens of homes in Egyptian Rafah demolished.

Terrorists regularly bombed from the air, shelled from heavy guns, are caught in the desert, but safer from it while nobody was. On the contrary, from time to time ISIS fire rockets into the Israeli resort of Eilat, hinting that there will be more, although today Israel is not the priority of the jihadists. Missiles are generally intercepted by the system “Iron dome”, nevertheless the threat in the Sinai becomes real not only for Egypt but also for Israel. Israel has Egypt and all assistance, provides strategic information and positively responds to requests for increased military presence on the Peninsula.

However, to solve the Sinai problem to simultaneously smooth out the Peninsula from the terrorists and to improve the situation for the local population, may be only the Egypt. Egyptian security forces willing to act firmly against the terrorists and those who harbored them, but with the investment in socio-economic development of the region Cairo is not in a hurry.

In Washington, where the Egyptian army annually allocate $1.3 billion in military aid, wonder why this money is spent not on the modernization of data collection systems and intelligence, and the purchase of new aircraft and submarines. After all these acquisitions has not improved the situation neither at Sinai nor at the border with Libya (another problematic area, which was chosen by the terrorists) or in Upper Egypt. Russia did not open skies for Charter flights to Egypt, and if ISIS finally settled in the triangle El-Arish – Rafah – Sheikh zuveyd, tourism will be long forgotten.

Now Sinai is one of the most attractive places in the world for terrorists. Al-Qaeda, ISIS — they all have big plans for this mountainous, barren countryside with a long coastline. If the Egyptian army does not hold the necessary reforms, the Peninsula will soon become the new likeness of Raqqa and Mosul, spreading further instability in the Middle East. The more that a nearby Palestinian Gas provides all possibilities for this.

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