Ian Bremer: the World order is falling apart


Иэн Бремер: Мировой порядок разваливается

For the time after the Second World war that liberal democracy was the least legitimate, the result was the collapse of world order. According to the forecast of Ian Bremer, the American scientist, which printed the magazine Times in 2018 is very large, the likelihood of the geopolitical crisis which will exceed the scale of the 2008 crisis. The expert further called the top ten risks this year.

First. The growing influence of China.
Washington has lost consistency in their policies, while China, by contrast, has set new rules, developing a highly effective trade and investment strategy to further their interests in foreign policy. The land of the rising sun invests and adheres to the principle of noninterference in the political and economic life of States, expanding its influence, and it should be noted that many countries prefer to be on her side. The world of business as the need to respond to this situation, and therefore increases the likelihood of trade wars and possible hot conflict between America and an Asian dragon.

Second. Increased probability of catastrophic incidents.
The wrong interpretation of any action or judgment may provoke a spontaneous world-wide conflict. The probability of such a fatal error occurs in cyberspace, North Korea, Syria, due to the deterioration of us-Russian relations and the spread of ISIS in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Third. The emergence of the cold war in technology.
The development of new technologies in information and technology, and competition for their markets between China and the United States may create tensions on the markets and to increase the risk of cyber attacks and information leaks.

Fourth. Factor Mexico.
For Mexico this year could be a decisive further development of the country. Presidential elections in July and the stalled negotiations to extend NAFTA can have an extremely negative impact on the economy, and subsequent elections. Cartels, corruption and lack of economic growth will probably raise a wave of discontent.

Fifth. Iran and the United States.
Dislike trump to Iran, its support of the Saudis and the policy of containment Khomeini in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen, will cause resistance on the part of Tehran. This could lead to new sanctions, which would entail the failure of the nuclear deal, the restart of Iran’s nuclear testing and of course would dramatically increase the possibility of an attack on Iran by Israel and the United States.

Sixth. The weakening of international institutions.
Organizations and associations that support the world order, can sharply reduce their influence on important decisions. This became possible in view of the so-called anticomintern populism that is gaining recent popularity, which manifested itself in the election trump and Breccia.

Seventh. Protectionism producers.
This phenomenon is more and more effort on free trade and competition. The country has thinner, refusing all significant allowances and duties and turning to subsidies, grants and the requirements to buy the products of their own manufacturers.

Eighth. The situation in England.
In Britain, the serious problems in connection with the political crisis, and in connection with Brexton. Battles between the two political forces of the country can lead to economic destabilization, and full of surprises in the election.

Ninth. Religious and ethnic problems in South Asia.
Indonesia and Malaysia will face the problems of Islam. Myanmar has faced problems of persecution of the Muslim minority. Indian nationalism aimed at the lower castes and Muslims, raises his head in anticipation of elections.

Tenth. Africa and security issues.
Destabilization of the situation on the outskirts of the continent, in Somalia, Sudan and Mali could spread to the country’s Central region, Nigeria, Kenya, Ethiopia. Foreign support for regimes in these countries is weakening, and up increasingly raising civil wars and terrorism.

Here are the major geopolitical risks saw the analyst in the current year, noting the conservation situation in Venezuela and the likely rejection of the political risks in the Eurozone.


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