French journalist: Ukraine and the EU will fall first

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Французский журналист: Украина и Евросоюз падут первыми

The Ukraine was no “revolution of dignity”. The real advantage is the Donbass. Ukrainians should not believe the propaganda about the future membership of their country in the European Union and the imminent collapse of Russia. On the contrary, the situation is such that Ukraine and the EU will fall first. In addition, Europe is never going to really accept himself Ukraine.

About it in interview to the correspondent of “Politnavigator” in Donetsk said Xavier Moreau – French journalist, military expert, analyst, founder Stratpol. The author of the book “Ukraine, why France itself is deceiving.”

Xavier Moreau — officer-paratrooper, he received a master’s degree in international relations at the Sorbonne, he specialized in Soviet-Yugoslav relations during the cold war.

Now lives in Russia, advises on French business, previously worked in Kazakhstan and Ukraine.

The website Stratpol Xavier is positioning itself as the Centre of political and strategic analysis (analytical Internet-portal). On the portal quite a lot of materials about events in Ukraine with criticism of the Kiev regime.

Французский журналист: Украина и Евросоюз падут первыми

Xavier, why did You decide to come to Donbass?

A few years ago I was one of the founders of the website in French, dealing with issues of geopolitics. In October 2013 I began writing about the crisis in Ukraine, economic and political problems of the country. I followed the development of the situation, and released a series of articles on this topic. Over time, my articles became popular on the Internet (but European media, of course, not published).

One day my friend, the Professor from the Sorbonne, told me to write a book about the events in Ukraine. At first, I refused this idea, as I am a businessman and I have little time. But, later agreed. Get the book “Ukraine: what is wrong in France”.

After it was written in an interview to the Internet in France, I said that Ukraine is dead. And then my Ukrainian friends began to call me and tell me that I’m wrong. And I decided to come here and see with your own eyes.

And what are Your impressions?

My feeling is a Russian city. Net beautiful Russian city. And the people here are Russian. I communicate with them as well as communicate with people in Russia.

I’m here asking questions to everyone: taxi driver who gave me a ride, sellers who have bought a SIM card, all with whom was acquainted.

“Do You see the future of Donbass with Ukraine?”, and all answered “no.” I understand why people whose homes were bombed, the answer is wrong. They have that right.

They want to live in peace, they want to speak the language of their fathers, grandfathers, and great grandfathers, and so they took up arms. I have great respect for them.

Here I was convinced that was right. After the first shelling in the Donbass Ukraine has died.

Французский журналист: Украина и Евросоюз падут первыми

Two years ago, when the war began, the Western media fully supported Kiev. As of now Western and, in particular, the French media refer to the situation in the Donbass?

As well, they just have less to say about Ukraine. For a variety of reasons. In the first place, because a lot of them said, was not true. For example, during the parliamentary elections in October 2014 they said that all of Ukraine has voted for Europe. But no one mentioned about the turnout. After all, Eastern Ukraine didn’t vote at all. Besides, in the first round almost always won by the Opposition bloc ” — more or less Pro-Russian movement, from those that are there. Even in Slavyansk, candidates were slogans: “Love Slavyansk Nelly (ex-mayor Shtepa Nelia, is in custody in the territory of Ukraine for separatism — note of AVT.) Is it possible that the Kiev army liberated Slovyansk, as saying the European media, voted for Pro-Russian candidates?

Our media is difficult to talk about Kiev’s something good. After all this, they have to lie.

About a year ago in France conducted the study, according to the results of which, only 11 percent of the French were interested in the events in Ukraine. But of these 11% the vast majority, about 90 percent, were for Donbass. It was a year ago. But now the situation has changed in our favor even more. After all this time, we actively worked. And now the state media began to write even about us. We are bad, we are agents of Putin, etc.

But, of course, on any TV channels we are not invited. Because our view differs from theirs.

Of people, interested in politics, no doubt about the fact that the Maidan is a manipulation that Kiev is a fascist oligarchic regime, and that Kiev is bombing Donbass.

But what do ordinary French, the other 89 percent? What point of view they hold?

Simple French think so, as showed on TV. Although now it is for them not very interesting, because the media says almost nothing on this topic.

But still, some are beginning to understand. For example, farmers. Because of Russia’s counter-sanctions many of them went bankrupt.

We have a week ago the French Parliament voted to lift sanctions against Russia. As it was. The socialists, whose government has a majority, gave orders to his deputies to vote against the lifting of sanctions. And then the deputies… just don’t come into work: “Oh, we couldn’t, we were so busy!”.

In fact, they officially support the farmers. And if they oppose the lifting of sanctions, for them, no one will vote in the next election. Therefore, they did not come.

You mentioned that the Parliament voted for the lifting of sanctions. What’s next? As can now happen in France?

This question is not decided in France, not even in Brussels. Such issues are decided by Washington. And only when he decides, sanctions will be lifted.

Today our farm is dying. Last year 600 farmers have committed suicide…

Because of that, because of the contracti?

Due to counter-sanctions and because of the policies of the European Union. They went bankrupt. You know, France is a major exporter of pork to Russia. Also we are the major exporter of fruit. And now Russia that we can not sell. Moreover, Polish and German products, which previously went to Russia, now come to us.

And for Russia it is good. Russia regrouped. In two years much has been done. I read recently that Russia will export chicken to China. And two years ago chicken meat was imported. Sanctions and counter-sanctions have given Russia a chance, which previously not even dreamed of neither Putin nor Medvedev.

Russia played very well in this game.

Even simple opinions of the French have changed very much about Russia (not Ukraine) after the terrorist attacks in France and after the beginning of military operations in Syria. As I asked people in the Donbass, will be interviewing taxi drivers and sellers, ordinary people in France. Ask them, what do you think about Putin? They will tell You: “We need a President”. European media assert that Putin is a dictator, but now we have so little power, that even people who say: “Well, give us a little bit of dictatorship. Give us the real, hard power, which can solve the issues.”

When do You think Ukraine will be in EU?

Never. They had never been invited. Read the Association agreement, there is not a single word about it. In November 2013, the French-Ukrainian chamber of Commerce organized a forum where the representative of the European Union, the Frenchman, stated that Ukraine is not a candidate for EU membership, and he can’t even promise that someday it will be them.

But Ukrainian media say nothing of the sort. They even about the French parliamentary decision said nothing. At least I searched, and found nothing, no information about this on Ukrainian resources. It is amazing. They are about the Dutch referendum said quite a bit. And then only in order to explain to people – we refused, but it’s nothing, it doesn’t count.

When Ukraine was still a real economy — to the Maidan — she was not invited to the EU. And now Ukraine’s GDP at the level of an average African country. And even the poorest European countries are far ahead of Ukraine.

Also pay attention to the conditions put forward by the European Union to Ukraine. At first I thought that the EU officials are so stupid that do not understand that the Association agreement will destroy the Ukrainian industry. But then I talked to people from Latvia, and they told me that they gave the EU: no-th-th. During the Soviet Union they had industry. After the fall of the Soviet Union, EU officials said, the plants do not meet the standards cover. Even in Lithuania shut down a nuclear power plant. Now they say: we need to import Russian gas. But if you don’t shut it down, and you would not need to import anything.

And then I realized the purpose of the project is the destruction of Ukrainian industry.

The EU representatives are not stupid, they know what they want.

When do You think the West will recognize Crimea as part of Russia?

You know, I asked this question to Nicolas Sarkozy when he was in Moscow, and he said, “Recognise the Crimea. Maybe not immediately, but the fact that it belongs to Russia – it is a fact, and the fact that he will never return to Ukraine – also a fact.” He even said that there is no intelligent person in Europe, believes that Crimea will return to Ukraine.

I spoke with the French deputies about it. Of them, too, no one seriously believes that Russia may give Crimea.

I think many people in Europe expect that Russia and Ukraine will start to compromise, will begin to negotiate on Crimea.

As, for example, now Russia and Japan conduct negotiations on the Kuril Islands. However, Russia is living in the Kuril Islands for 70 years, and negotiations are under way for a long time, but, nevertheless, the fact.

As soon as the EU lifted sanctions, it would mean that the Crimea — Russia. It seems to me that everyone knows it. Even in Poland and the Baltic States. Denial of this is just a game. Game USA.

Recall, the first sanctions against Russia. They were not serious. But the fall MN 17 allowed to impose real sanctions. Just Crimea — Germany and France know this very well — it always belonged to Russia. Because of the Crimea, except that Poland could impose serious sanctions.

MH-17 was necessary to them. I’m not saying that the initiators of the sanctions hit him, I’m waiting for the results of the official investigation (and, apparently, I will wait for it very long). However, it is still obvious that it was necessary to them.

Do you think that in the current situation, the federalization – a way out for Ukraine?

I believe that we need a Confederation — of federalization is no longer sufficient. Donbass need more free status than Bavaria in Germany. Federalization was possible 2 years ago, if Kiev started military action.

But if that happens, the whole of Ukraine will change. Because that is Kiev without the wealth of new Russia? Nothing.

Imagine that Kiev began to respect the Minsk agreements and gave a special status to the Donbass. But then, Odessa and Dnepropetrovsk will also require a special status. And to ban it will be impossible. Even the lions now wants to be Autonomous.

In addition, how much tax will come to Kiev? Much less than before. For example, the Donbass will not agree to sell coal to Kiev three times cheaper than the market price, as it was before. And the Donbass, I think another 10 years will not pay taxes to Kiev. Because here a lot, destroyed APU, must be restored. For example, airport, and other facilities in the city.

All these processes greatly change the Ukraine.

What all this can lead Ukraine?

In the best case, will be the country, but not the nation. You know, Ukraine became independent 25 years ago. And 23 years after independence they started to bomb the part of their country, and to completely ignore the Constitution, and the Constitution is maybe the only thing that connects Ukraine as a state.

In Russian, for example, or the French, had serious civil wars, revolutions, but that was after hundreds of thousands of years of cohabitation. Therefore, we after wars and revolutions have been able to reorganize, focusing on all the good things from our history. When you have a thousand years of history, you have a lot of good. But what is the history of Ukraine? Only gained independence, he immediately began to humiliate the part of its population is Russian Orthodox, and then began to bomb the Donbass, abolishing democracy in the territory half of the country. The new Ukrainian authorities themselves had killed her. They themselves deprived of their country’s future.

What do You think, is it possible to force Poroshenko to implement the Minsk agreements, and if so, how to do it?

I think that is possible. Remember when he was a candidate for the presidency, his slogan was this: “in 3 months I will find a compromise with Russia, I will establish peace”. The people who voted for him, voted for peace. But in the end won the war. It is the failure of Poroshenko.

But everything would have changed if he’d been pressured by France and Germany. If they officially demanded from Poroshenko in the course of, say, two months to change the Constitution to give autonomy to the Donbass, but otherwise, no partnership, no money, — Poroshenko wouldn’t have a choice… it All depends on the West. And in any case, everything will end in a victory of Russia. But nobody wants that. Especially the United States.

You speak of the victory of Russia, and Ukrainian politicians claim that Russia here-here will collapse.

Sure… I discussed this issue with our American partners, as they are called Vladimir Putin, and I asked them: “Your propaganda about the decay of Russia is for fools, or You and your government really think so?” From their responses I realized that they think so.

Well, good luck. I can say that none of them know Russian. They talk about the dictatorship, but Russia is much more free than France, for example. And the economic system of the United States – is the most absurd. In Russia the debt is small, the reserve is great, and Putin ruled the country as the father in the family. And there are no such risks that were in the ‘ 90s.

The West really believes that Russia, as the Soviet Union would fall, but they do not see that they themselves are falling. It seems to me that the EU now is like USSR in 1986. The failure is predictable and inevitable, the only question of time. I can’t tell you exactly when it will happen, but it will be soon.

With regard to Russia. In the previous economic crisis people fled from the banks, and now on the contrary, deposits in banks over the past year increased twice. People who put money in the Bank will not make a revolution. And in the EU it is the opposite.

In the Ukrainian media spreads this idea – needs to hold out until Russia falls. But the Ukraine to survive more than two or three years will be very difficult. In 2019 we need to give the IMF money, then it will end the contract on the transit of Russian gas. No investment in Ukraine, then not at all. Those investors who invested in Ukraine over the past years and hoped that the establishing in Ukraine of products they will sell to countries of the Customs Union. After all, the Western market is full. And now they simply do not need Ukraine.

Well, they are waiting for the collapse of Russia. I wish them good luck.

I think that we will see as Ukraine and the EU will fall much earlier.

Returning to the events in the Donbass. I think you will agree that what is happening here is a war crime of the Kiev authorities against the inhabitants of Donbass. Like You said, how should we punish criminals?

I think they should punish the people of Ukraine. I think that people like Parubiy, Avakov, Yatsenyuk, should be punished in the first place. Also all the commanders of punitive battalions should go to jail for at least 30 years. But that’s my opinion. The punishment for criminals should make residents of Ukraine and residents of Donbass.

If we talk about nakasakay… 2 years ago, on may 2 in Odessa there was a terrible event. But were not punished those who killed and those who suffered. What do You think about this? How should the world community react?

You know, I would not pay attention to the world community. After all, if USA and the West does not give Kiev 6.5 billion, the war would not exist. And if they hadn’t sent military instructors, then Ukraine would not be able to create your army.

So the best option is the court which should be in Odessa. And to punish the perpetrators needs Odessa. It would be fair.

Question to You as a businessman. Have you worked with Ukraine and Kazakhstan, and other countries. Um, do you think the DNI and the LC to be interesting for Western business?

In the Donbas there is wealth. For example, we know that anthracite is the highest quality coal. There’s also great potential of the region in the production of iron. But still, the greatest value is the potential of people. I was in many cities, survived the war, but what I saw here shocked me. Here everything works. There are no drunks on the streets. I haven’t seen here what I saw, for example, in Kosovo, where just a complete mess.

So the Donbass large as possible, and this is, undoubtedly, an attractive region for business. But still, I would place the Pitmen did not expect the investment of the West, and focused on Russia.

In the West these are difficult times.

What would You say to the French, who were never in the Donbass?

The French, European media broadcast you that in Ukraine there was a revolution of dignity. Really no dignity in it. Dignity is the Donbass.

Also want to appeal to the Ukrainians. Ukrainians, it is time to open your eyes.

Of course, it is difficult to admit that you were manipulated, you were naive… But it’s time to do it.

No one in Europe is not waiting. Unless you want to be slaves in Germany, or prostitutes in Poland?

You do not need the EU. Better look at Russia.

 

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