Overseas business continues to reduce investments in the Russian economy, follows from statistics of the Central Bank balance of payments for the first half of 2018.
In January-June the inflow of foreign direct investment – that is investment in the real sector in the form of starting a business or buying shares in companies – has fallen by 2.4 times, to 7.6 billion dollars.
The interest of non-residents to the Russian economy declined sharply in the spring, when the U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions against “Rusala” and the terms of its acceleration by raising taxes, fixed the may decree of Vladimir Putin, was powerless to change the situation.
If in the first quarter the inflow of direct investments amounted to $ 5.6 billion, 10% above last year’s level, the second fell to $ 1.7 billion and were 7.5 times less than in the same period of 2017.
For all of last year, according to the Central Bank, the Russian economy received 23.2 billion dollars from direct investors from abroad. This is 25% less than in 2016, less than half in 2011, and three times lower than in 2013.
And in the fourth quarter non-residents is folded the operation and sold off assets, and then taken $ 1.6 billion. The outflow of direct investors on a quarterly basis was recorded by the Central Bank is only the third time since 1992 that: even against the default of 1998 and the global financial crisis 2008-09 biennium in the real sector of the Russian Federation the money was coming from abroad.
Non-residents changing priorities – instead of investment in the real sector they prefer financial speculation, buying bonds of the Russian government or the securities of corporations; it can mean distrust, says leading researcher of the Center of the HSE Sergey Pukhov.
The investment climate in the country for business in General remains extremely cold, and “Islands of prosperity” in Russia are created artificially, at the expense of the budget, indicates the Department of international capital markets IMEMO Yakov Mirkin.
The growth prospects of the economy are becoming vague: incomes practically does not grow (only 0.3% during the may-2018), and the profitability of any business, excluding sales abroad of mineral resources is rapidly declining.
According to Rosstat, in January-April profits in oil and gas production jumped twice, in the whole extractive sector – by 1.6 times, while in manufacturing industry fell by 3.6%, in agriculture – 25.1%, in real estate three times, and the share of unprofitable enterprises made up 34,2% of the maximum for 4 years.
Another blow to the non-primary sector will be to increase VAT, and will be the first medium – and high-tech industry, warns the Director of the center for market research HSE George Ostapkovich.
According to the forecast the MAYOR, due to the increase in the tax burden, the growth rate of GDP will slow down in 2018 to 1.4%, and the growth of real wages – more than 6 times, 6.3% to 1%.