Experts predict a decline in the legitimacy of the elections of the President of the Russian Federation to the West from-for not admission the Bulk
The refusal of the Central electoral Commission to register opposition leader Alexei Navalny as a candidate for the Russian presidency in the March elections could have a negative impact on the evaluation of the results of voting in the West. In particular, this can lead to a decrease in the legitimacy of these elections in the eyes of Western countries, “Vedomosti” reports with reference to the opinion of experts.
They note that from a legal point of view, reason to think the upcoming elections are illegitimate no one. The decision of the CEC meets the applicable Russian laws.
The authorities will say that from the point of view of the national judicial system Bulk – criminal, so Putin’s legitimacy will not be harmed, says the expert of the Moscow Carnegie center Andrei Kolesnikov.
However, in his opinion, the CEC decision will give reason to question the results of elections in political terms. “There is legitimacy and political dimension. The lack of competition, and low turnout reduces the legitimacy of the winner”, – said Kolesnikov.
However, he adds, “to expect any far-reaching consequences of this decision are not worth it. “Western partners accept a President who is elected in accordance with the Russian legislation, but politically belong to him as a person whose political, but not legal legitimacy is somewhat doubtful. In fact, they refer to it just now,” – said the expert.
We will remind, on December 25, the CEC refused to register Navalny as a candidate in presidents of the Russian Federation. The occasion was the presence at the oppositionist convictions. Opposition politician promised to challenge the decision of the Central election Commission “in the constitutional court and everywhere else.” Navalny also promised to organize a nationwide protest against the decision of the CEC and urged his supporters to boycott the elections.
Also Navalny intends to appeal the CEC decision to the ECHR. On the question of “Vedomosti”, will not hit the possible decision of the ECHR in favor of Navalny on the legitimacy of the presidential elections, press Secretary of the President Dmitry Peskov said: “No. There are Russian legislation”.
As for the tactics of boycott, according to experts, its success depends on how much in March, the gap between the actual and the desired turnout. “If the passivity of the society will remain at the current level, then the subject of a boycott will become more sensitive, making it difficult to script a full legitimization of the elections, including in the eyes of foreign partners”, – told “Vedomosti,” political analyst Mikhail Vinogradov.
A year ago that the low turnout may be a major issue for the main candidate of the upcoming elections in the face of Vladimir Putin and the government in General, said the General Director of the Russian center for public opinion studies (VTSIOM) Valery Fedorov.
“The first risk is low turnout. Presidential elections – the only elections in Russia, which is critical for the stability of the system is the main source of its legitimacy. The legitimacy of the system, we do not determine the Constitution, not laws, and the popularity of the first person. Accordingly, the low turnout – a blow to the legitimacy”, – said the sociologist.
We will remind, presidential elections will be held in March 2018. Earlier media wrote that the Kremlin is counting on the victory of the “main candidate” with a score of 70% of the votes with a turnout of 70%. However, recent surveys have shown that this appearance will not be – about their willingness to vote to declare less than 60% of Russians.