Experts: freezing salaries will not save the Russian economy

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Эксперты: заморозка зарплат не спасет российскую экономику

Freezing of wages in the period of 2016-2017 years will not pull the Russian economy out of recession, but the optimization of budget expenditures for the maintenance of officials and security forces could free the funds to support real production, according to respondents RIA Novosti experts.

“Freezing wages is undesirable, as it undermines the quality of human capital”, — said the Deputy Director of Institute “the development Center” GU-VSHE Valery Mironov. “Another thing, if the optimization will not affect health and education, and, for example, the field of public administration and national security, which will be carried out large-scale reduction. The rest of the salaries should be indexed, and full of inflation,” he added.

The Ministry of economic development in the baseline scenario of the forecast, which should form the basis of budget projections for the next three years, involves the growth of real wages by 1.2% in 2017. Target scenario, which should provide the growth of Russia’s GDP by 2019 4.5%, suggests a pause in the growth of wages in the current year and the next, and then in 2018-2019 income dynamics of the population will begin to accelerate and get ahead of the dynamics of the base case.

Demand and investment

“Growth can be stimulated consumer demand, and that there was a demand, people should be the normal level of wages”, — said the Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the organization of small and medium business “OPORA Russia” Sergey Borisov.

“The economy, such measures will not help, it is better to attract investment. Many Western players now tell me: show me where we can invest, we are ready to invest, and we do not care about sanctions. But we must understand where our money goes, and why should we believe that this will be a long time” — he explained.

Mironov did not exclude that the authorities may decide to limit payments for state employees. Thus, according to him, the government can try to achieve the transition of employees to the actual production. “However, to make people so dramatically change my life very difficult, including due to the expensive housing, mortgages and the high cost of transportation. Most likely, this measure will not force people to move,” — said the expert.

Talk about the freezing of wages is merely an invitation to debate, the adviser of Institute of modern development Nikita Maslennikov. By publishing this forecast, the MAYOR puts the government before a choice: reform or welfare of citizens.

“The Ministry tells us: to ensure high growth, it is necessary to increase the saving rate from 18% to 30%. If we leave things as they are in the public sector, in the field of small business and encourage investment, we have to do it at the expense of the population”, — he said.

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