The top seems to be came a cry: “Delegate import!”. Although GDP directly a team in his “embargo-the decree” did not give is for him “rasshifrovki signals,” he said.
He called himself a half or two years to make domestic production competitive and to do the substitution “leading”. All this – in terms of actually the economic and trade war against a coalition of the economic superpowers of the Earth. A new cold war.
But I feel like saying: where are you, little Sophie, had once been? And with the current “macroeconomic” policy any import will not work. There will be only a shameful zilch. Here, as used to say unforgettable Soviet plumber, the entire system must be changed…
PRICE OF GRASSHOPPER-DRAGONFLY UNVARNISHED
A very eloquent example. In 1999, on the eve of the arrival to power of GDP, imports of food in Russia amounted to 7 billion dollars in 2013, the last “pre-war” year, 42 billion “in.e.”. Given the fact that the dollar of the late 90’s- about half the current, still goes to that country for the past 15 years has been to buy abroad four times more food. And it is – in its pure form is eating up the country. Because the citizens Eref from the year four times as much to eat did not, and the number of the inhabitants of the Russian Federation has diminished. Nominally, the wages of citizens of the Russian Federation has since increased about 11 times, but if you adjust for the General rise in prices, the real incomes of the population under Putin has increased about 2.5 times.
That is, instead of the “post-Yeltsin” Russia to increase domestic production of food, the new government lowered precious resources on buying foreign food, strengthening agriculture in Europe, USA, China, former Soviet republics, India etc. This despite the fact that since 1999 due to the growth of the world prices for oil, gas and other raw materials of the Russian Federation for 15 years, received an influx of $ 6 trillion. In dollar terms, the 90 – 4.5 trillion.
This is a huge inflow of funds. We in 2000, fear believed that the renewal of fixed assets of the Russian Federation need 1.5 trillion. of dollars and thought, and where to get them? Almost 14 years of growing, and high prices for hydrocarbons has blocked all our expectations. The resulting “oceans” of petrodollars in the national economy of the village would be enough, and the tenth part. But in reality by 2014, at the beginning of a new cold war and zapoloshnye “the struggle for import substitution”, we have a shortage of approximately 100 thousand new combines and 300 thousand modern powerful tractors. Plus 40 million never returned from the desolation of the 90 hectares of arable land. On my Desk is the book “On land and at sea,” 1983. There’s lament: Oh, Woe in the Soviet Union empty 200 thousand hectares of arable land! I wonder what would happen to authors if they found out that one of the former Soviet Union thirty years later will be abandoned in two hundred times more land?
I want to ask the current “leaders”, accipitrine running and calling for “rush” for a year or two: and you, somewhere before was and than was engaged? Where all your “pre-war” trillions “from.e.”? How you used almost 14 years period after Yeltsin’s departure and the beginning of a new cold war? Came out as in the fable of grandfather Krylov: “the Grasshopper dragonfly summer red sang…” – and here the winter passed. To us it is clear what happened to all the pre-war “petrodollar rain.” List…
– They were simply stolen and taken abroad (over 2 trillion).
– Put them in the so-called financial reserves of the Russian Federation (sterilized), and in fact lent to the US economy and the EU. Not less than $ 1 trillion.
– Eaten them outright, buying foreign food and cars (the exact amount of counting will not take, but at the peak of Russian imports imported cars at 70 billion dollars a year, and the food – 45 billion). Instead of equipment and technology (for the sake of bribery of the electorate) bought purely potrebitelskie products.
Finally, they simply buried and wasted on a completely pointless and unproductive things: the APEC summit-2013, Kazan Universiade, Sochi Olympics. However, even as many will squander on a football championship and new games. The circle – about 150 billion dollars.
Want to know where our money that could’ve lead to stable production of domestic manufactured goods, equipment and food? Avon and Sochi see. The new palaces of the nobility. Flocks of imported cars. On the 200 hectares of Italian land that have taken the son Rotenberg in Italy. London, in whose real estate invested not less than half a trillion dollars of our resource revenues.
In General, the “boy” raseyskoy “elite” fate gave trillions of dollars. But he did not put them in the country and its future, and descended into casino and carousing. Spent, for example, football and expensive toys, and under the applause of part of the brainless electorate. (“But the Olympics held level! And something left in the country!”) And now, when began the economic (cold) war with the powerful West, and “the boy” saw a clear perspective of its collapse due to economic collapse, he began hurriedly to rush and call the real sector of the Russian Federation to engage in import substitution.
Boy, did you know that you made this process impossible? You have doomed Russia to failure and do not do anything to the real sector of the Russian Federation could develop?
NO STAFF, NO CREDIT…
The General voice of the Industrialists and farmers is that now neither the availability of cheap (and long) credit, no qualified personnel. Power, getting involved in a new cold war, managed for 2014 three times to understand lending rates, making loans to 60% higher than at the end of 2013! That is, she translates the situation of economic stagnation in the decline. While the country suspended: destroyed the education system does not gives the real sector needed specialists. The mob of Internet nerds with the “gadgets” they by no means replace. That is, to engage in import substitution, and no one, and nothing.
As the Director of the Noginsk plant of fuel equipment Alex Barbalat, the acute lack of konstruktorov and technologists. Simply no import substitute! In Russia almost destroyed the training of technologists…
Why you need cheap and long credits for the real sector? The current state – not the USSR. It may not engage in the construction and updating from thousands of companies. And he doesn’t have the personnel for it. Because there is folk wisdom: if you want to completely fill up any business – charge it Putin’s “efficient managers”. In these circumstances, the state will at best be able to build infrastructure and engage in “defense” plus several oil and gas companies. Everything else will have to do thousands of private businesses that are seeking thousands of opportunities to produce import-substituting goods and services using government built infrastructure. They will tell you what you can do: machines, harvesters and tractors, stockings, cheeses, cold cuts, fabrics, shoes, clothes, etc. they need cheap credit (for your own money is not enough), and tax incentives, and the army qualifizierung engineers, technicians and workers!
The state, hysterically yelling about import substitution, does quite the opposite: lifts interest rates, imposing new taxes and fees, continues to destroy education, exacerbating the personnel problem! Clean water self-harm mixed with sabotage. If you look at the current state, then it is an entirely different priorities. Football. The construction of stadiums. Purchase archeology coaches and players for football clubs. The extraction of money from the economy in the “reserves”. And theft.
The CEO of the company “TSAMAKS” (veterinary drugs) Oleg Volkov said: in the first chanowski to create a state Bank (instead of the Central Bank), which gives the real non-oil sector interest-free loans. And, secondly, to do away with the moronic system of exam in education and to return to the Soviet system. Economist Mikhail Delyagin has called for the establishment of funds for project financing instead of the useless banking system to the real sector could obtain loans at 1-3% per annum.
According to M. Delyagin, the only thing that makes the current government to think about import substitution – it is the devaluation of the ruble. But if the effect of the depreciation thereof, in 1998, was exhausted in two years, the devaluation in 2014 was enough for a couple of months. Now nothing can be done without using drastic means. Pushing the country in 2012 to WTO, the Central government has made “economic screw”. (As explained Andrey Danilenko from the Association “Soyuzmoloko”, after the entry of Russia into the WTO, foreigners successfully knocked out many Russian producers, now increase the price).
Now it is necessary to increase import duties on imports, to impose protectionist barriers on imports in the form of technical standards, to create a “decolonized” the financial system and to take measures of coercion snickering domestic monopolies to scientific and technical progress.
Why do we need the latter?
The Executive Director of the Scientific-industrial Association of armaturostroenie Ivan Ter-Mateosyants told the story of how a drop of water reflects the entire “innovation” of the economy, eaten by indifference and greed. Well, the guys created their Association valve high pressure (for pipelines), which is 9 times cheaper than imported European counterparts, and four times easier. Went to “Gazprom”. And there it became clear that they must at their own expense, to make such valves, at his own expense to test the system of “Gazprom” (and this is very expensive!), to prove the efficiency of the valve. Then “Gazprom” will consider their proposal in the competition. In the meantime, he will continue to purchase imports.
And so – everywhere in Russia! A huge, gray amoeba, senseless and stupid-floating – here is what the current Erefiya. With “elite” that can do nothing sensible, but stubbornly wants to rule us and beyond.
Half of the pipeline valves purchased commodity monopolies in Europe. Whereas the download is quite modernized “reinforcing” plants in Russia – 50%. Without coercion patronizing and lazy monsters, the problem will not be solved!
Thus, today we need to achieve not just import in Russia and save its economy from collapse and ruin. But this must be done by changing, in principle, the macroeconomic policy of the authorities. And Prime Minister Medvedev recently said that “macro” basically remain unchanged. Therefore, Mikhail Delyagin, insists that first of all you need to clean the government from sislibov (monetarists-of hydrotubation).
That is, the collapse is predetermined. As you know, not only the declared policy of import substitution…
UNDER THE RULE OF THE BRAINLESS…
To change macroeconomic policies still have. It is time to understand that in the current cold (economic and trade) the war for Crimea and the Donbass, the domestic production of peaceful goods and saving on import is the same as the heroic production of weapons in the rear of the red Army in the Second world war. But can you imagine Stalin, which also requires the army to defeat Hitler’s troops on the Volga, while doing everything to disrupt the work of the industry of the Urals? But does today’s Kremlin.
Weapons of victory may be, according to the well-known Andrey Parshev, normal protectionism, exactly according to the ideology of “economic nationalism,” Friedrich list. That is, the state should strongly encourage the export of finished products and duties to push the export of raw materials. In turn, encouraging the import of raw materials, but but discourage the importation of finished products. Be imported freely shall only something that either cannot be produced in the country or something extremely important for the development of its own production. That’s more than century, the United States raised its industrial economy.
But the current government violates this Canon!
Former Minister of agriculture of the Russian Federation Victor Semenov is indignant: the government did not even bother to impose an embargo on food imports from the EU in Rosfederatsiyu for a long time! The annual deadline is ridiculous. Who in their right mind would take out loans and invest their money in the agro-industrial complexes and even small farms, if it is the government through the year to lift the embargo? After all, European food is cheap not only because there the peasants working better than ours, but because “ironed” local States subsidized by direct subsidies and incentives for export. In Russia there is no such. We have a state chooses to foolishly throw money you know where. So there is no import in Russia is not expected.
Mikhail Delyagin is sure an embargo on the import of food, you need to enter for five years, no less!
The famous Director of the Lenin state farm Pavel Grudinin laughs bitterly: embargo on imports of European food entered Moscow, and Minsk has been investing in its dairy industry is the equivalent of eight billion Russian rubles. In Russia – nothing of the sort. The speed of adoption of the necessary decisions in the current Russian government is stunningly low. Kazakhstan and Belarus are much faster. Grudinin pakreel Delyagin: to out the sense, first it is necessary to change the government of the Russian Federation. To remove the slowpoke and non-professionals.
Armaturostroenie Ivan Ter-Mateosyants appeals to the experience of China, where the import share above 15% is not allowed. If the foreign begins to exceed this threshold, the state urgently gathering of experts, is starting to give subsidies to their producers. The expert believes that the destruction of the domestic industry was a quarter of a century. It is impossible to raise for a year or two: you need at least two decades. On such lines and it is necessary to plan the policy of the state. But at first – in contests with foreign producers to give the domestic manufacturers a head start at a price of not less than 20%.
The Chairman of “Soyuzmoloko” Andrey Danilenko said: with the support of import substitution in the agricultural sector do not need to spend money to help and so strong landowners. State money should be spent on addressing the “bottlenecks” where the country is extremely dependent on imports. That is, not only for the system Logistik-supply, but also on the meat and dairy industry, for horticulture, breeding system and “genetics” – breeding. Because Russia now imports from abroad and the seeds, and breeding stock. Alas, the Ministry of agriculture of the Russian Federation doesn’t work like that!
State Duma Deputy Oksana Dmitrieva adds: despite all the great-power Patriotic confrontation with the West, all the most malicious, the most controversial decision taken by the Centre, with the accession of Russia to the WTO, saved! For example, the ugly “fiscal rule”, suction oil and gas revenues of the country into “reserves”. And actually – for lending to our enemies in a new cold war. How can you develop the real sector? To pick it up, are required, for example, standing orders industry and state structures. For many years to come. But the system of permanent competitions-tenders (Federal contract system) in this case works against it.
Itim: the country – not just its economy – fell under the authority of brainless Amateurs. And they are doing everything to Russia a new cold war was lost, falling into economic catastrophe!
THE SECURITY OF A SYSTEM CRASH
I think that with the current economic crisis existing “vertical-tugodumny” System will not handle it. Unlike the crises of 1998-1999 and 2008-2010, now at the stagnation superimposed economic war with the West that came to stay. Urgently need to replace their mindless, but personally loyal minions for professionals. What is.
Here is an example of the Director of the Cherepovets foundry and mechanical plant Vladimir Boglaev. He didn’t steal, didn’t Rob your plant so that for the last 12 years, 15 times to raise production at the plant. Achieved annual growth of 12-15%, and without outside investment. Moreover, it now creates on the basis of CHLMZ “Experimental engineering test site” by organizing a mass vocational training of young people in today’s workplace. At the same time from studying he needed no more than five percent. Else he does for the country: preparing qualified personnel.
But someone from Central government was interested in the experience Boglaeva? Yes, no one! It to the government and the President as if present at all. Although we face – the Minister.
Vladimir Boglaev believes that a policy of reviving our industry need to plan for a quarter of a century, developing the Fifth and Sixth technology. It will be difficult? Yes. But better, as he puts it, “be patient on the operating table” than to die in convulsions without treatment. Any policy of the industrial recovery of the country must start with the RF output of the WTO, with the abolition of VAT refund for export from the country of raw materials, with the support of dual-use products.
In my opinion, you should start with a few steps.
1. With the adoption of the “roadmap for the development of agriculture” business Party as a national mega-project – the locomotive of the Russian economy.
2. To make a tax maneuver in the economy (increase the taxes on personal income, but to reset them to productive enterprises), shaped by the transformation of agriculture of the Russian Federation in the “offshore zone” with the abolition of Federal taxes on it, but with the preservation of regional and municipal taxes.
4. To go to failure on harmful and useless government spending. That is, to abandon the “sports mega-projects” for the support of the real sector.
5. Start writing megaproject for the development of agriculture of the Russian Federation in the General plan of reindustrialization of the country.
6. Withdraw all investment expenses of natural monopolies to the state budget, forcing these Russian Railways and Gazprom to freeze tariffs. And all their investment costs – to prove that the commissions of industry experts, which will dramatically reduce theft and unnecessary costs inflating the rates. To force monopoly go to advanced and cheaper technology. This will make it actually possible to recreate the state planning Commission.
7. Need necessary actions updated and nationalized Central Bank for the establishment of preferential crediting of the real sector (through the mechanism of special bills a La Hjalmar Schacht).
However, all these proposals in the current government (as, indeed, and above) will not be heard. The answer is simple: in fact, we offer a new plan for reindustrialization of the Russian Federation. As such, would require a radical change of the “elite” of Industrialists on business. With the pedestal would have to overthrow and raw materials producers, and incompetent officials. And this is a shock the foundations of the current government. Because she will not do under any circumstances. Industrialization is the death of the current “vertical”, the whole established system of looting the country unproductive, mushrooming beyond measure “drones”.
Because it comes down only to the verbal diarrhea about “import substitution” and inept attempts to do in “manual mode”. And that’s a guaranteed failure. Not with your “talent” to do it, Lord! Because you are powerless to do anything about it – and the crisis in Russia will continue to gain strength. Which can lead to shameful defeat in the new cold war, and long before the collapse of the US economy which you anticipate in. To a new revolution, which will not prevent any police action. Because the crisis could lead to a split and decay of your power structures.
We, for our part, are ready to offer the team for the withdrawal of Russia from the crisis. I advise you to use our offer, the citizens of the big bosses. It is too late. For the course of events seems to be accelerating.
History will soon call you to his judgment, the citizens nachalnichki, and that the economy will read you the sentence of death. Since 2000, you conducted business it is to this end – their stupidity, inaction and greed. You will not be able to feed the interior Ministry, the army and the FSB when the rest of the country will be left without money, wages without work. Chinese “pipe” you build will not have time, but it is not going to help. Your “elite” too multiplied and too much eating. In the severe crisis on all the “elite” is not enough: you are already starting to push each other from emptying the feeder. This will lead to the risk of becoming part of your “nobility” in opposition. Then strike up another turmoil.
Way you do not have!
(The article used the materials section of the Moscow economic forum held 24 September).