The Ministry considers that in October, the Russian currency will start to depreciate and at the end of December the average rate will be 63 of the ruble. Now the dollar is worth about 58 cents. Analysts agree that the dollar will go up gradually, but the variation of their assessments of high — moderate 60 rubles before the crash to around 70 rubles per dollar.
Forecasters from the Ministry of economic development believe that in the fourth quarter of this year, oil prices and the ruble will fall. The corresponding estimates contained in the materials to the amendments to the Federal budget for the current year.
The price of a barrel of Russian oil mixture Urals in October will be $51 per barrel in November to $49 in December — $47. The average for the fourth quarter of $49, per year or USD 49.9.
Meanwhile, according to the Ministry of Finance, the average price of Urals oil in January — September 2017 $50,55 per barrel. The average price in September of 2017 amounted to $54,24 per barrel. On Friday, October 6, Brent crude was trading in the range of $55-56, which means the price of Russian oil at $52-54 per barrel.
To stay around $58-59 per barrel of Brent, which was observed at the end of September, quotations failed and now the next level which will overcome the speculators is $55. However, it is likely that prices will start from the current values and turns up.
The Ministry of economic development together with the drawdown of oil is waiting and weakening of the ruble. Such a forecast: 60.8 per dollar in October is 62.1 RUB in November and 63 of the ruble in December. The average rate for the fourth quarter — 62 rubles, over the year to 59.4 rubles per dollar.
For comparison, the average rate in the third quarter accounted for 59.7 rubles, and the value of the American currency by 20:00 Moscow time on 6 October was 58.2 per RUB.
Analysts, as well as the Ministry of economic development, waiting for the weakening of the ruble. But they have a range of estimates is very high: moderate to expectations, the collapse of the Russian currency.
Assessment of Ministry of economic development fully meet our expectations, says Evgeny Volkov, head of Department of broker operations of RosEvroBank. On the ruble in the fourth quarter will continue to weigh many factors: the fed’s actions, the lack of liquidity in the market, of payments of Russian companies on external debt.
“Moreover, oil prices were unable to gain a foothold above $ 58 per barrel, which also will contribute to the further weakening of the ruble. Substantially the situation will change next portion of the discussions in Congress about tightening the sanctions against Russia, which could force large investors to abandon plans for the purchase of public debt of Russia”, — he believes.
Senior analyst IR “freedom Finance” Bogdan Zvarich considers the forecast conservative. Most likely, the ruble in November and December will be higher, he said. The analyst said that he expects that before the end of the year, Brent will retain the position in the corridor of $55-60 per barrel.
“In this situation, the average rate of the dollar in recent months will hold around 60 rubles, below forecast,” — said Zvarych.
This opinion is shared by Yuri Kravchenko, the chief of Department of the analysis of banks and money market IK “Veles the Capital”. He notes that until the end of autumn really we can expect the weakening of the ruble from the current levels, and by year-end correction may increase after increase in rates on the foreign markets, reducing the attractiveness of ruble yields and growth of surplus liquidity in the banking system of the Russian Federation. “However, we do not expect strengthening of the dollar above 62 rubles, and the average value is closer to the end of the year will likely be close to 60 rubles,” — he concluded.
At the same time, the analyst of “ALOR broker” Kirill Yakovenko believes that the estimates of the Ministry too careful.
In his opinion, by the end of the year, the number of factors that could not even lower and derail the ruble will continue to grow.
First, in the fourth quarter many Russian corporations have to repay their external debt denominated in foreign currency, and before that will have the currency to purchase. When they go to the foreign exchange market with large volumes, it is always driven by the exchange rate, as was the case in 2014. It is also likely that the Ministry laid down the decline in prices of oil, which must be due to the fact that market participants are aware that the agreement by OPEC to reduce production is actually observed is not fully and not all.
“According to my estimates, even our nation before the agreement they were to increase production, then to cut,” says the analyst. Market participants must sooner or later understand that all sides of the oil market acted similarly.
Another factor weakening of the ruble is the reduction of the spread between the key rate in the Russian Federation and rates of developed countries, particularly the United States. Central Bank consistently reduces the rate, trying not to clamp down on the money supply, which is already shrinking because of the reviews of the licences, and the fed, on the contrary, proclaimed the policy of a strong dollar and your bet will increase.
Thus, the space for earnings on operations carry trade is shrinking, and soon Carrie traders can start to withdraw funds from Russian assets and convert them into currency, which can lead to growth of the dollar.
The analyst believes that the dollar until the end of the year can rise even up to 65 rubles, and “this is without taking into account the actions of state-owned companies in the foreign exchange market”. If state-owned companies will carry out their intervention, the rate can easily overcome a lath in 70 rubles.