Fresh statistics household expenditure brought the historical record: in January 2019, the citizens have spent on current consumption of goods and services of 100.7% of their income. Thus was overcome the traditional January high (in January 2018 96.4% of all income) and a crisis level of spending on current consumption at 76.9% in 2018 (only a little more than it was in 1998-1999, when revenues fell by a quarter).
This happened on the background of a slight (0.1 percentage points, PP, or 65 billion rubles) the deterioration of the dynamics of income and wages in 2018. In January added to this is the slowdown in the annual real wage growth of 0.2 percent (the lowest since mid-2016), the decline in real income of 1.3% (see “Kommersant” on 21 January) and a noticeable drop in their purchasing power in almost all categories of goods (with the exception of the “jacket male”, “adult jumper”, apples, pasta, sunflower oil, black tea, milk, lamb and beef bones). At the same time, the share of expenses on payment of obligatory payments for the year increased by 0.6 percentage points to 12.6% in January 2019.
“This happened as a result of an increase in interest payments on the background of the expansion of consumer credit and growth of tax payments in terms of increased tax collection and tax base,” explains the January analytical review of the Central Bank about the economy.
Igor Polyakov of the CMASF notes that this level of consumption of citizens were allowed to support the embezzlement of ruble savings of 245 billion rubles of cash and 555 billion rubles banking. While Bank savings, amid growing fears of a new foreign economic sanctions in January grew at less than last year, the share of spending on the purchase of currency. Citizens are actively making purchases with credit cards abroad (4.4% of 100,7%), went to cafes and restaurants (annual growth of the turnover of catering in January amounted to 4.9%) and buying cars.
The Central Bank expects that “given the base effect and the restraining effect of the VAT increase on economic activity annual growth of GDP, final consumption expenditure of households and gross fixed capital formation (see column “Number”) in the first quarter of 2019 will slow down to 1-1,5%”.