Cautiously looking in 2018


С опаской глядя в 2018-й

Russians more often than before, fear in the coming year misfortunes and troubles from crises and wars to riots and even a coup.

Not worth it, of course, too terrified and with complete literalness to perceive grim report “Levada center” called “Waiting in 2018 year.” Citizens do not tend to open the soul to interviewers survey services. And also accustomed to show pessimism for any of his reasons — that’s the optimist in our climate looks silly.
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However, because the Russians for many years, ask what they fear in the coming year, it is possible to understand something, let us see how to change their answers.

But first, let us appreciate, in any real household circumstances are answering questions pollsters.

The standard of living of the majority of them goes down for several years. And it seems to never end. Reporting unemployment figures (5%) and officially recognized the share of those whose incomes are below the subsistence level (13-14%), are perceived as a mockery. But the authorities persist in their fictions.

A recent example is the scandal perpetrated recently by the Ministry of labour and social protection VTsIOM figures laialdasem survey the institution that determined the unemployment rate at 11%. She probably even higher, but admit it is impossible. As well as the fact that the poor in the country, more than double assure the welfare office.

Add to this that the information about the world most ordinary Russians still get from TV, from sleeping or at least pretending persecution mania propagandists.

And now for the answers fellow citizens. So, what events they believe is possible in the next year? Of the proposed “Levada-center” of options you can choose how many you want.

First two things-the likelihood of which in the eyes of the people has not changed in the last year or two.

First, it is a “high-profile corruption scandals and resignation of Ministers.” In 2018, with certainty or at least with a high probability of something like that waiting for 63% of the respondents. A year ago the figure was 60%. A long time ago, on the eve of 2007, is also 60%. A slight decline (51%) were registered only at the end of 2014, in the midst of a currency panic. The horrors of the then economic storm, apparently, have weakened the interest of overbearing corruption, although some of its prominent acts have been revealed just then.

Second concern, the level of which has not changed, at least in comparison with the previous year, is “armed conflict with some of the neighboring countries”. Levada did not specify what kind. But his interlocutors, apparently, easily guessed that with Ukraine. Now believe possible 23% of respondents a year ago — 21%.

Now, from the few relatively stable expectations down to fears over the past year have increased significantly. Of those almost a dozen.

For example, the war “with USA/NATO” on the eve of 2017 thought possible 10% of the respondents, and on the eve of 2018 at 23%. Not that that’s a concern (or if you prefer, proud and desire) fully captured the masses, but it has now become a visible contribution to the overall tense mood.

And the fact that the voltage is increasing, follows from the fact that the “economic crisis” in 2018, I think it is possible 50% of respondents (against 47% a year ago), and “riots and protests” — even 35% (vs. 21%).

Do not suggest to see in this politico-economic Outlook. There is something more prosaic, but also sad: people don’t trust government reports on the resumption of economic growth and standard of living. Three years ago, when the crisis flared up, its continuation and development are waited for by 60% of citizens. Then they began to seem that the worst days are behind us, but lately they seem to start to doubt it.

About the same speaks and the expected increase of protests. All amendments to the conditional and partial seriousness expressed by the citizens of predictions, it is possible to remember that for all time of observations at its maximum (about 56%) of these expectations came out at the end of 2011, on the eve of really impressive street protests.

And another addition — instructive in all its exoticism. One of the questions was about how do respondents in 2018, “coup d’etat”. Not sure what the source of “Levada-center” would be able to articulate what they understand by this. However 15% of respondents reported that believe a revolution is possible. On the eve of 2017, the same answer was given by only 9%. And to your previous peak (20%) these assumptions came again at the finish of 2011, in the midst of contemporary confusion.

I repeat: all these figures speak not about the specific intentions of the respondents, there’s no need to fantasize, and the growth of General dissatisfaction with life. Permanent belt-tightening, tightening the screws and forcing to be afraid of all that close and that far away, spread among the masses of gloom, and behind him, and anger.

This depression automatically makes itself felt in the answers to other questions, including far from the everyday life of the majority.

Compared to the fears of a year ago rose sharply fears that in 2018 can occur: “mass clashes on ethnic grounds” (an increase from 17% to 29%), “deterioration of the situation in the North Caucasus” (from 22% to 29%), “major technological disaster” (from 27% to 36%) and even “mass epidemic” (from 26% to 30%).

Of course, this is just a survey. Never mind the “mass epidemic” and “disaster” when the sun goes down to celebrate the New year.

But almost everyone will agree: 2017 did not bring people the feeling that after several years of turmoil and life returns to normal. The country is in 2018 with all the accumulated anxiety and fear of the new.


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