C-300 and C-400 miss “the Tomahawk”

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C-300 и C-400 пропустят "Томагавки"

Russia is taking serious and immediate measures to strengthen the air defense of the Syrian army. This was reported by “Izvestia” with reference to its sources.

It is noted that the military-political leadership of Russia is considering the possibility of sending to Syria the party of anti-aircraft missile and gun systems (zrpk) “Pantsir”. The transaction concluded in 2008 (according to some, then discussed the purchase of 36 to 50 of such complexes and at least 700 missiles for them in the amount of 730 million dollars), but for financial reasons was only partially implemented. Now decided to transfer to Damascus of the remaining “Shells” without demands for immediate payment.

The newspaper’s source declined to name the exact number of “Shells”, which will be handed over to the Syrian military, but gave to understand that it is not less than about 10 units and the command posts and additional radar stations, which will allow you to use zrpk “obamarama”. The last batch of “Shells” were handed over to Damascus in 2013.

This news fits into the context of worsening us-Russian relations in Syria. Recall that in the American expert community in September — immediately after the failure of the agreement Russia and the U.S. on Syria — began to discuss radical phased scenarios of “forcing Assad to decrease collateral damage in Eastern Aleppo”.

In particular, in the first phase were asked to give the go-ahead for the supply of several dozen modern MANPADS checked “moderate.” And, according to French media reports, the agreement was reached on 24 September in Riyadh, which was attended by representatives of the intelligence community of the United States, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and a number of groups.

The second stage of the U.S. plan for a “landing” aircraft of Assad — precision strikes on the infrastructure of the Syrian army outside the coastal Latakia. In particular, runways and platforms of its airfields. As noted by experts from the USA, blows can be applied to tactical missiles. (complexes HIMARS mounted on a wheeled chassis) or missiles, air-and sea-based on the “Israeli scenario”. As you know, the Israelis, responding to stray mortar shells sometimes fly from Syria, strikes on artillery calculations of Assad’s forces while avoiding casualties.

On 6 October , the representative of the defense Ministry major General Igor Konashenkov, commenting on reports in the Western media to discuss Washington’s possible attack positions of Syrian troops, said that the crews of s-400 and the recently deployed C-300V4 “Antey-2500” is unlikely to be time to clarify on the “straight line” the exact program of missiles and accessories their carriers.

In this sense, on the one hand, Russia is supplying the Syrians zrpk may err if USA really wants to attack the infrastructure of Assad’s forces. On the other — it may be limited to information spreading, demonstrating the willingness of the Russian defense Ministry in a limited time frame to increase the combat strength of the air defense of Syria.

But what if the logic of the step in the transfer of large party zrpk quite different — in the case of a possible U.S. attack Syrian facilities outside the coastal Latakia, to reflect it are not Russian forces and means, but only the Syrian? This will allow Russia in this scenario to be a witness, not a participant in direct confrontation with the US army.

Note that, despite the statements of the defense Ministry that the range of Russian anti-aircraft systems s-300 and s-400 could be “the surprise for any unidentified objects”, the Russian side has also repeatedly stressed that the s-400 and s-300 ensure the safety of the naval base in Tartus and in its coastal ships of the operative connection of the Russian Navy in the Mediterranean sea. At the same time, according to experts deployed in Syria means even without taking into account the terrain still does not allow absolute cover up from the American cruise missiles of the Syrian airbase al-Nairab in the province of Aleppo or their own airfields in Damascus and Hama.

As noted by the former senior officer of the Main staff of air defense Mikhail Khodarenok, the last time Russian military experts have taken measures to increase the combat readiness of air defense forces of Syria. Very different and very contradictory data, in the battle of the air defense forces of Syria there are two divisions of the air defense — about twenty anti-aircraft missile brigades and regiments, which are armed with medium-range SAM s-75, s-125M, 2К12 “Square” and “Buk-M2E”, SAM 9К33М short range “OSA-AK/AKM” and sprk short-range “Pantsir-s”, and two groups of anti-aircraft missile battalions of s-200VE. In this sense, additional antiaircraft with range 20 km will strengthen the protection of Syrian objects.

Decide whether the Washington radical scenario — hard to say. On the one hand, according to American experts, sitting on their suitcases, the administration of Obama, which proved to be rather weak and passive two consecutive terms, is unlikely to give a green light to the Pentagon to attack Syrian facilities. On the other — the authority of the United States in the middle East is rapidly falling. Moreover, when the negative development of the situation for the so-called opposition in Aleppo, in the next round of negotiations of the Russian Federation and the United States, Moscow may appear a lot more leverage with the new administration of the White house. This may encourage the Americans to decisive action. In this situation, the defense of Syria the Syrian forces and means would avoid rastitelnojadnye of the Russian Federation and the United States.

— In the current situation it would be the most effective method to repel a possible “grounding” Syrian air force attacks by the international coalition led by the US, believes a corresponding member of the Russian Academy of missile and artillery Sciences (raran), doctor of military Sciences Konstantin Sivkov. Then our military may use their funds formally provides cover facilities in Tartus and Latakia. Of course, the Syrian air defenses, including antiaircraft, American. to intercept, the winged “Tomahawks” will possiblt easily, although it all depends on passerovannoy volley.

Deputy Director of the Institute of political and military analysis Alexander Khramchikhin also said it is likely such a scenario:

— Of course, this option is logical. If the blows are not applied on the Russian bases, and this, of course, will not then have to fight the Syrians. Another thing is that in this case, it is still in the same Syrian antiaircraft cars, would rather sit back the Russian forces which will formally be considered Syrian.

“SP”: — That is, it can be assumed that the Ministry of defence calculated a scenario in which the s-300 and s-400 miss attack U.S. missiles to work on them formally to the Syrian funds?

— Completely. And then if there are bumps Tomahawks, and so they miss them. Because if a cruise missile goes directly into the complex, it probably just will not be able to timely detect.

The danger is that, as stated in the defense Ministry, Russian military, for example, the center for reconciliation of the warring parties, are employed outside the coastal zone to deliver humanitarian aid and conduct negotiations in other provinces. Not to mention the actions of advisors and special forces troops — said a lecturer of the Military University of the Ministry of defense, air force Colonel retired Vladimir Karyakin. On the other hand, formally the West can say that Russia had not provided him with the coordinates of the Russian military. In this sense, as the Americans like to say, to avoid a “humanitarian crisis” in order to “coerce Damascus to peace” strikes are theoretically possible, including using artillery. For example, Turkey in the winter is quite actively worked this way in the area of highway Castello, not allowing to surround the opposition.

In any case, for Russia safer to areas outside the coastal Latakia was covered by Syrian air defenses, because of the current turmoil in the sky, it will be very difficult to distinguish the attack of the West against the militants of the “Islamic state” in the center and East of the country from their attacks on objects of Assad’s forces. According to reports, in recent years the Russian experts a number of air defense of Syria, brought in combat readiness.

— The main purpose of “Shells” — point cover aerodromes and elements of the management system, and also sweep areas of mid and long range, — said the former chief of anti-aircraft missile troops Russian air force in 2000-2008 Lieutenant General Alexander Gorkov. — Still in Syria is quite complex terrain, with mountains, and therefore “blind” areas and areas that need developing to cover. How is it implemented in Syria — I can not say.

In the Soviet era air defense system of the country and the military air defense of Syria was quite powerful. It is clear that the civil war did the trick and mixed in depth defense is little left. But some events recently to maintain the combat readiness of the calculations were carried out with our help. But little to put there individual elements of the system of air defense – anti-missile or fighter aircraft. They should focus on the Syrian commander or the chief of air defense, because the unity of command in the army has not been canceled, and Damascus is still the capital of the state of Syria.

However, researcher of the Center for analysis of strategies and technologies, chief editor of the magazine “arms Export” Andrey Frolov doubt the veracity of the allegations “about the supply of a large party zrpk”.

— According to my data, under contract from 2006 to Syria in 2008 and 2013 was delivered 36 zrpk. So, if there’s any extra shipping, then most likely minimum number of complexes. I don’t think we’re going to put “Shells” in debt, because now they are actively supplied in the armed forces and for export. Of course, it is logical to assume that the money would go from the contract to supply Syria combat training aircraft Yak-130. But this amount could buy only two or three cars of the type “Armor”.

But generally “Shell” — it’s complex, which is able to intercept a limited number of cruise missiles and operate drones. In addition, they operate within a unified air defense system. Alone against a massive strike the US will not survive, and as a means of military defense they are quite a risky bet, because the militants can destroy anti-tank.

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