Burning Iran, trump can kindle and Russia

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Поджигая Иран, Трамп может запалить и Россию

The situation around Iran increasingly resembles Newton’s law: action force equal to the force of counteraction. The more the US is trying to push, the more resists Iran.

Tough sanctions, which the United States recovered against the Islamic Republic, coming unilaterally from a Joint comprehensive plan of action (SVPD) has already led to the cessation of Iran a number of items of the transaction and, in fact, the ultimatum to the countries participating in AGREEMENT with the requirements of Tehran.

The conflict is exacerbated by the situation in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman — shot down in Iranian airspace by the American drone attacks on oil tankers in the attacks, which the US and the UK hastily accused Iran, peace in the region is not added. The detention by the authorities of Gibraltar Iranian tanker that allegedly was carrying oil to Syria, only adds fuel to the fire.

The Minister of foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic Mohammad Javad Zarif said in a telephone conversation with his British counterpart, Jeremy hunt, that Tehran intends to export oil, “under any circumstances”, but US sanctions make it illegal. It is reported by the Iranian news Agency Mehr.

Donald Trump is clearly itching: it is not the first month, he pours threats against Iran, was sent to the region with additional military forces. And even on the days he was ready to strike.

The seriousness of the situation, apparently aware of in the U.S. Congress, the House of representatives which recently passed an amendment limiting the President’s right to start a war with Iran. Earlier, a similar decision was adopted by the American Senate.

The situation in Iran can become a trump card in the presidential campaign. Into service it has taken the Democratic party candidate Joe Biden, called the actions of trump’s “hand-triggered by the disaster.” The latter may not mind a “small victorious war”, but as she hadn’t turned into big troubles.

Until all of a participant “okrucienstwo conflict” I assure you that would like to avoid a real military confrontation. Not interested in it and Russia. About it on Tuesday once again said Russian foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. “Of course, we are not interested in the fact that the situation around Iran and in the region as a whole is tense and sharpened. We hope that Iran will exercise restraint,” he said. Adding that along with this, Russia can not close my eyes on the objective facts.

The foreign Minister stressed that the United States themselves out of SVPD and comply with the relevant resolution of the UN security Council, “and at the same time forbid all others to implement this resolution, and show the finger at Iran.” Lavrov also reminded that the provocative actions around the oil-carrying vessels is still not investigated.

Senior research fellow, Centre for the study of the Middle East Institute of Oriental studies Irina Fedorov hopes that the conflict does not spill over into open confrontation between Iran and the United States with Israel.

— The situation is very tense. Iran disagree with unilateral US sanctions and in response they announced the increase of the percentage of uranium enrichment. Every two months the percentage of enrichment will increase, if will not resume oil trade. In the first place with European countries that have signed the AGREEMENT. These countries, primarily Germany, France, UK — have actually zeroed the purchase of Iranian oil and curtailed cooperation with many Iranian companies under sanctions.

Iran will increase enrichment and it is very dangerous. Even more dangerous than the possibility of open military confrontation with the United States and Israel. Although the likelihood of such a military conflict in the eyes increases.

Iran, of course, will continue to export oil. He will do this in circumvention of the sanctions. I mean the use of barter trade in national currencies. However, the quantity of oil that Iran can now and will in the future be able to export a fraction. It’s absolutely incomparable with the volumes that were used.

Exports will continue, but in minimal quantities.

“SP”: — What this situation means for Russia, for which Iran — Caspian neighbour?

For Russia any tension and, God forbid, a military conflict in which modern weapons can be deployed close to our borders and boundaries of the regions where our national interests, threat. Dangerous in all respects.

Now the foreign Ministry is in favour of all these questions to try to solve it diplomatically. But, of course, for Russia and for the world community, the biggest danger is if Iran will cease its obligations under the AGREEMENT, will increase its percentage of enriched uranium. This means that it increases the possibility of creating in another state, near the borders of our nuclear weapons.

“SP”: — US pressure is not put Russia before a choice, which side to take in this situation?

— I don’t think. The statements of the MFA has been repeatedly said about it. It is not a matter of choice which side to stand? The question is how to maintain to some extent their neutrality, clearly not getting any sides.

“SP”: — Russia has the opportunity to become an arbiter in this conflict?

— Russia, like Europe, Germany, France have the opportunity to become not so much a referee as intermediary in solving the conflict between the US and Iran. Even in the first place — between Israel and Iran. Because Russia has very good relations with both these countries.

European countries also want to become mediators. And negotiations that were at the Emmanuel Macron, President Hassan Rouhani, and the arrival of the head of the German foreign Ministry in Iran show that the international community is gravely concerned about the evolving situation and intends to address this issue by diplomatic means, avoiding the use of force. The U.S. Congress also limited the ability of the President of trump to strike at Iran without their consent.

According to a member of the Expert Council of state Duma Committee on CIS Affairs, Eurasian integration and relations with compatriots Alexander Savelyev US pressure on Iran will continue. However, marked a split between the Americans and their European allies.

— In fact, in Europe, US supports only UK. As in recent history with the capture of the Iranian tankers. Germany and France — the heavyweights of the EU — remained committed to the AGREEMENT.

On the other hand, Iran itself is a country with ancient culture and a high sense of self-esteem is not going to give in to American blackmail. Especially having before our eyes the example of North Korea, where the United States is also saber-rattling, but eventually went on to direct negotiations.

The probability of a full-scale military conflict is not so great. But it is possible or in case of aggravation of the pre-election struggle in the United States where already used to solve domestic problems by provoking international flare-UPS, or in the case of unintentional escalation. For which enough technical failure or errors of the performers.

“SP”: – What are the possible consequences of the destabilization of the region for Russia, given that Iran is a country of the Caspian region?

— Destabilization of the Caspian region as one of the key and most sensitive regions in Eurasia and the world, in any case will continue. Since any rapprochement, any joint development of the countries of Eurasia (including, of course, and Europe), is the existential challenge for the United States.

The aggravation, the more military the aggravation of the situation around Iran inevitably destabilizie regional situation. And it’s the middle East, Central Asia and the Caucasus. This is including the CIS and CSTO. And Russia itself in the Caspian sea. Therefore, we cannot indifferently watch what is happening literally on our borders.

A military conflict with Iran, which is home to many ethnic Azeris could destabilize the situation in Azerbaijan. Can lead to the aggravation of the Karabakh conflict. And thus “firing” the entire Caucasus with its complicated ethnic relations.

Recently we have seen “anti-Russian hysteria” in Georgia. And spoke reasonable assumption that it is associated with the U.S. desire to secure a comfortable position for a strike on Iran. The Georgian government is hardly prepared to allow the U.S. military to their airfields for a strike on Iran. And under the pretext of protection from Russia and the wave of “anti-Russian hysteria” is much easier.

These and other major threats identified by the Russian stance and support the legitimate interests of Iran, which is under construction, proceeding from national interests, including security. And based on the now often trodden under international law.

The analyst, postgraduate Center for post-Soviet studies IMEMO them. Yevgeny Primakov ran Farhad Ibragimov believes that the US is trying to gradually isolate Iran.

— Indeed, the country is now experiencing unprecedented pressure, but it’s still not what you expect President trump. Europeans continue to maintain dialogue with Tehran. And more — create mechanisms able to trade with the Islamic Republic to bypass us restrictions. Previously, when the Americans imposed against Iran sanctions, this was not the case.

In other words, US allies and themselves not happy with the current situation. And not going voluntarily to exert pressure on Iran. Constant contact senior officials from the EU, the recent visit of Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe to Iran just demonstrate the desire of the allies of the Americans continue to engage in dialogue and to develop cooperation with the Iranians.

So if it will be the pressure on Iran, only from Washington. It will be limited to the sanctions. Their limit is not yet exhausted.

“SP”: — Can the growing conflict lead to open confrontation and the beginning of hostilities?

It is possible that a similar scenario is studied. But it is unlikely. The administration of the tramp with all the negative attitude towards Tehran provides that in the event of war the consequences will be totally unpredictable. And certainly not in favor of the United States and Israel.

The latter is interested only in the complete isolation of the Islamic Republic, but certainly not the war.

“SP”: — there is Great probability of chance in the escalation of the conflict? For example, in connection with another provocation against Iranian tankers?

— No, chance is not here. The Americans are trying to escalate the situation around Iran not with their hands and the hands of those who maintain relations with Tehran. To make the split.

While the Iranians try to keep pragmatism, aware that all of these events around the tankers — that other, as a provocation designed to complicate the relationship of Iran with Europe.

“SP”: — How the conflict affects the situation in the region? Including the countries of the Caspian region?

— First, undermining the situation in Syria. The Pro-Iranian cells in this region can take revenge on all who take part in the war against Iran.

The second is the supply of oil, which is especially needed in China, India, European countries. Uninterrupted supply of raw materials, they will stop. Prices for oil products could rise sharply — twice. This will entail unpredictable consequences for the entire global economy.

The third is the proliferation of terrorist and other radical groups who are just waiting to destabilize the Islamic Republic. First of all, in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Terrorists can easily enter the territory of Iran, then — in the countries of the South Caucasus. But also undermine the situation in an already unstable Turkish regions bordering Iran.

Fourth — refugees that will rush to the Azerbaijan and Armenia. Via Azerbaijan they will try to make inroads, since it is close and does not require huge financial costs for the equipment. Given that the population of Iran is more than 80 million people and its population increases, the impact from this point of view will be felt much more serious than in the case of Syrians.

If the Americans decide to open a war against Iran, with airstrikes here they just will not do. A large-scale invasion that will cause huge human losses. The result will be zero. As in the case of Afghanistan.

“SP”: — will Not be whether Russia as a result of the actions of the US before a choice — whom to support?

— Russia has its own policy and own interests. Moscow will not go to the RAM. Another thing is that diplomatically Russia will definitely side with Iran. And this will encourage both sides to sit down at the negotiating table.

By the way, the Iranians do not mind to negotiate with the American side. But they put the main condition in front of US — to return to the SVPD. Only then can something to discuss. And even something to negotiate.

Today for our country Iran is not just a partner in the middle East. It is a country with which we in the last few years have many in common. In addition to working closely in the Syrian conflict, outlined a serious economic cooperation in several areas: the two countries ‘ participation in the project of international transport corridor (ITC) “North-South”, to complete the work which should begin in the coming months. As well as the involvement of Iran in the Eurasian economic Union, which is also important.

There are forms of cooperation in the form of geopolitical triangles “Russia-Azerbaijan-Iran and Russia-Turkey-Iran”. In which discusses the geopolitical and geo-economic cooperation.

Thus, Russia cannot stand aside when Americans openly put pressure on Iran. But drastic steps will not be taken.

“SP”: — does Russia have the opportunity not to become a party to the conflict? Is it possible to return the parties to the framework AGREEMENT?

— Russia has that opportunity. But you have to understand that Moscow will start from the situation that will develop later. In this case return the parties to the framework AGREEMENT interested and Europeans. Which disadvantage just from what is happening in relations between the US and Iran.

Theoretically, if we imagine a situation that the White house made the decision to attack the Islamic Republic, Moscow can not be any arbitrator, nor to stay away. It will be forced to defend Iran based on the fact that military actions are deployed right next to its southern borders.

However, the chances that trump will agree to negotiate with Iran, is high. Besides, trump starts the race. He is unlikely now to come to grips with this issue. For him, the aggravation of the situation can exercise his supporters on “Iran case” in other countries. The capture of the British Iranian tanker Grace-1 clear evidence of the fact.

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