Bubbles that can burst


Пузыри, которые могут лопнуть

Commodity markets continues to shake, emerging economies slowing, developed countries are stagnating. Investors are looking for ideas and business projects that are or will become “safe harbors”, or promise a windfall. But their prospects are vague. The conquest of Mars, high technology and investment in traditionally prestigious estate — all of this can be the next global bubble ready to burst.

Will there be life on Mars?

Imagine a person who asks for money from investors, telling them about the plans for the colonization of Mars and a high-speed train traveling at a speed of 1200 km/h in the vacuum tube. What are the chances to get at least one cent?

But the American entrepreneur Elon Musk is doing all this. This year he presented his new project – the colonization of Mars and “vacuum train” Hyperloop. And he has good chances to get money from investors. Reputation and a huge pool of fans while playing in his favor.


In 2002, Elon Musk and his partners sold PayPal for $1.5 billion Since the entrepreneur is selling people the “future.” Its main asset today is Tesla Motors company producing electric cars of the same name. In addition, the Mask owns a stake in SpaceX, which makes reusable rocket Falcon (recently on the launch pad exploded its ninth version, the cause of the accident is not yet established). Another key business – SolarCity, which is engaged in production and installation of solar panels and energy storage. Now Tesla and SolarCity are at the stage of Association.

The problem is the Mask ignoring his fans and his critics rests in the fact that all three projects unprofitable and live at the expense of inflow of new investment.

The Economist magazine estimated that about $6 billion he managed to attract investors and employees, the same amount borrowed from financial institutions and about $7 billion consists of “other income”, including advance payments for cars Tesla loans from government and contracts with the leasing companies.

Company Mask regularly present new products and collect their pre-orders and prepayment. And delivery times are very rough and constantly shifting.

For example, Tesla introduced earlier this year, a new model of electric car, Tesla Model 3, and gathered nearly 400 thousand pre-orders and prepayment. The same trick was pulled earlier with energy storage Powerwall, the second version of which was presented on 29 October this year. But here’s the problem — “third Tesla” buyers will receive before the end of next year, and the factory drives is still under construction.

He successful of the projects Mask – Tesla recently reported a profit in the third quarter of this year to $21,878 million Fans and some analysts excited.

For 9 months the net loss of Tesla was $553,577 million, just 2.6 percent loss in the same period last year.

In General, if it is not a pyramid, then something very similar. But the Martian only spins the flywheel, and “vacuum train” is gaining momentum.

Investors and other citizens hard to resist the scale Mask. No one likes to be called retrograde, and everyone is afraid to miss out on future profits.

Recently to Russia there came the Hyperloop CEO Dirk Ahlborn. He solicited the support of the Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev.



“We, as a company, we take on the task of financing, building, but, of course, imperative that the government supported us and helped us,” he said, in a speech at the plenary session of the forum “Open innovation” at SKOLKOVO (quoted by RNS).

It is possible that none of the businesses Mask does not collapse and it is possible that it will bring in the end income. The main time to sell shares.

You fine!

Will manage or not, one of the largest banks in the world Deutsche Bank to reduce the amount of the fine in the $14 billion issued by the us authorities for alleged manipulation of mortgage securities in 2008? This question is on the minds of investors and analysts in recent weeks.

IMF chief Christine Lagarde urged the German Deutsche Bank and other banks to reconsider their business models to maintain profitability, said Lagarde in an interview with Bloomberg.

Lagarde also called on the German Bank to negotiate with the U.S. Department of justice, which requires Deutsche Bank paying billions in fines for the withdrawal of all lawsuits. “A bad settlement agreement is always better than a good trial”, — said the head of the IMF in light of the situation with Deutsche Bank.

According to latest information, negotiations are still deadlocked. For Deutsche Bank, claims the U.S. justice Department is not only a probable loss, but new loss of reputation. Frightened by the prospect of huge fines investors withdraw large sums from accounts, reported by Finmarket with reference to Deutsche Welle.

In the third quarter of 2016, the Deutsche Bank liquidity decreased by €23 billion to €200 billion, according to statements of the Bank.

History with a fine allowed to distract attention from another problem for the German Bank. According to analysts, his balance with a large portfolio of derivatives. The Bank for International settlements (BIS) has been estimated at $46 trillion. JPMorgan counted by a different method $312 billion, and the Bank itself says only about €41 billion in net worth.

But no matter how consider, the volume of derivatives giant. How to clear these blockages, it is unclear.

To compensate for current losses, the Bank sells assets, cuts costs, dismiss staff. We are talking about a reduction of approximately 10 thousand jobs worldwide. The German government is not going to help him, believing that the Bank has enough capacity to cope with the situation. And adopted after the crisis of 2008-2009, the legislation does not allow the use of taxpayer funds at this stage.

The outcome of this Saga, hard to predict. Deutsche Bank collapse could trigger a new round of global financial crisis. A in this connection, I remember September 2008 when the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers became the trigger for the start of a protracted fall.

“Apple” is not the same

Steve jobs became a legend during his lifetime. He repeatedly blew up the market, producing unique products and has turned Apple into one of the largest corporations in the world. He died five years ago October 5, 2011.

Since then, the thesis that “Apple is not the same”, became common place. But for a long time, the company was able to prove that this is nothing more than the grumbling of cranky detractors.

And here at the end of October Apple announced that in 2015/2016 financial year for the first time in 15 years its annual revenue fell by 8% to $215,6 billion Reason was the decrease in sales. Annual net profit fell 14% to $45 billion in the Fourth quarter proved to be one of the worst in many years – down sales: it sold 45,51 million smartphones iPhone vs 48,04 million units a year earlier. Revenue fell to $of 46.85 billion from $51.5 billion a year earlier, while net profit fell to $9,01 billion against $11,12 billion.

Anybody yet does not fall into panic. Analysts say that the fourth quarter was even slightly better than expected. But it is unlikely that the bosses of Apple should console themselves with this.

Five years without Steve jobs Apple has failed to make main – to develop and bring to market a new product, to make another revolution.

And competitors for this time stronger, and now competes with Apple not only Samsung, but also a group of Chinese manufacturers offering the iPhone counterparts, but two times cheaper.

Further competition will only become stiffer. And if Apple will not find new solutions, at some point, investors may be disappointed in it with all the consequences for shareholder value consequences.

London, goodbye

If you decided to trade his odnushku in Butovo for a room in London, think again. Perhaps the best strategy is to postpone this investment for several months or even a year or two.

Few years real estate prices in London is continuously growing, but Brexit confused card. The fact that the British will vote in the summer for an exit from the European Union, failed to predict one analyst.

Now, the main risk lies in the fact that London may start leaving banks and investment companies.

The British capital is unlikely to lose its status as one of the world’s major financial centers, but the first place the city will lose with high probability.

The largest UK banks could leave the country in early 2017 because of fears related to the future British exit from the EU, said the head of the British bankers Association Anthony Browne the Guardian.

Now for the potential ex-the inhabitants of London offices are Frankfurt, Paris, Zurich and other European cities. The greatest chance to skim the cream from Brexit, according to experts surveyed by Bloomberg is new York.

“In the EU there is no other place comparable to London on the level of business activity and regulation, especially in the capital market. The only other city that can replace London — this is new York” — the Chairman of Lloyd’s of London, John Nelson.

Brexit has led to the fact that the London real estate began to become cheaper.

“Since the referendum, a number of buyers asked for discounts due to the political climate and economic uncertainty,” said the head of London Residential Research Tom bill. The average price of housing in London in August decreased by 0.6% to 580,93 thousand pounds, according to LSL Property Services/Acadata. August was the fifth month of falling prices.

According to the forecast of the British Centre for Economics and business research (CEBR), the following year, prices in London continue to fall, which can amount to 5.6 per cent. Much of the fate of the British capital, much will depend on the terms on which the UK will leave the EU.


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