Perhaps Syria is indeed time to think about their own independence. This country, which actually lost its sovereignty with the introduction of American and Russian troops, have made significant progress in stabilizing the overall situation.
The terrorists of the Islamic state not a threat anymore, despite the fact that they still continue to conduct their war in some areas. Fighters from other groups had long lost all opportunities to hurt Assad or Kurds — two major forces in the state.
These circumstances could be enough to ensure that foreign presence in Syria was reduced to a minimum, but to expect any changes will have a long time. The United States, supporting the Kurds, it seems, is firmly established in the Arab country. Washington is well aware that United under their leadership, the Kurdish groups are unlikely to remain United in the struggle for power, when Americans decide to give it to them. To understand this, just look at the situation before the intervention States.
Then the Kurds were fragmented and there was little to oppose ISIS or even Assad, who in the period of defeat after defeat. In General, the departure of the Americans will lead to the capture of Kurdish lands by government forces, and it will happen in a short time. However, then can begin a guerrilla war, but, presumably, with her Damascus handle. At the same time, with these resources, Assad himself is a very sensitive politician, and it depends primarily on foreigners.
Moscow restored the Syrian army, and thus gave to understand that without the Russians, the Arab soldiers couldn’t do anything. This dependency is obvious, but as it turns out, in Syria this factor is not considered seriously.
The Bashar al-Assad gave an interview to Syrian media. He was asked about dependence on Russia. The President replied that he, of course, confers with Russian, but they have no effect on policy, and every decision is made independently. He thereby gave to understand that Russia needs only the army. One could consider these words a call center for a phrase — say, and that he, as President of a sovereign state to say more. But first we must look at the events that took place a little earlier.
Near the border with Lebanon, was recently placed the Russian military. This decision somehow caused the discontent of Iran. Perhaps the Kremlin is trying in this way to give some guarantees to Israel, going through about a military operation by the Syrian Arab army from the Golan heights (the Russian specialists also participate in this campaign — ed.). Anyway, Iran was unhappy and rumor has it that this when he had some pressure on Assad. It should be noted that Tehran is actively interfering in Syrian politics, promoting the idea of pandeism. Assad, of course, Allawi, but in the Islamic world, he has nobody to rely, except for the Shiites, led by Iran. In General, today in Syria, a large number of important government posts is not just loyal, but loyal to the Shia Iran. Of course, they will promote the interests of Tehran, and not Russia. In the case of disputes between the parties preference with high probability will be given to the Persians.
Russian political scientist and orientalist Karine Gevorgyan believes that Russia really has no intention to interfere in the internal politics of Syria, at least previously no activity in this direction was not.
— Russia came to Syria in order to preserve the sovereignty and interference in the politics exclude this possibility, so that Russia’s actions aimed at preserving peace in the region, imposing their will is in conflict with that purpose.
Most of the other Russian experts, whom we interviewed, held similar opinions. In their opinion, Russia basically does not participate in the political life of Syria.
Turkish expert Ender Imrek believes that recently Moscow and Tehran have started to compete with each other for influence in Syria. Moscow is not interested to her Union, Iran turned Assad into his puppet. Similar goals the Persians.
— Political influence of Russia in Syria increases as preparing another military campaign against the terrorists or opposition. During these periods Assad is doing everything required of him in Moscow. But this is due to the hopelessness of the situation. Russia is the only country that can prevent the defeat of Assad. But from the point of view of religious proximity and traditional ties to the Syrian elite of Iran, Assad prefers Tehran.
Russia until recently had no contact with Syria — after the collapse of the USSR, all ties were broken, and even trade and economic relations did not develop, they are simply not there. Energy projects remain projects on paper, and Syria meanwhile helped Iran cope with international sanctions, though it was risky. It’s hard to explain, but the Syrian elite is totally committed to Iran. On the other hand, it was Iran who came first to the aid of Assad, when the war began. The army was scattered and more than half of the military deserted or joined the opposition. This has led to the crisis, to overcome which was possible due to the presence of Iranian revolutionary guards and Shiite volunteers. Russia decided to send its military in 2015. It was a key event, so that the Assad regime was saved, but this could not compensate for the long years when he didn’t have anyone but the Iranians. Assad have no split personality, but he is forced to change its attitude to Russia during military operations and a period of calm. This is due to Iran, which does not hesitate to intervene in the politics of Syria, and tries to create some semblance of Hezbollah. Most likely, it will be able, in time of peace in Syria will always be the Iranian Viceroy in the person of any new political party. Russia does not, and relies only on the military presence. But the war will end sooner or later, all decisions will be to make policy. So in this sense, Russia plays Iran.