As the upcoming elections in Turkey will affect the power of Erdogan

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Как грядущие выборы в Турции повлияют на власть Эрдогана

After only a week, 24 June, Turkey will hold presidential elections. This event is important in itself, but this year it is of particular importance.

First, simultaneously with the presidential election held parliamentary.

Secondly, after the vote, will come into force the constitutional changes that Turks voted in a referendum just over a year ago — in April 2017. Turkey from a parliamentary Republic will turn into a presidential one. And the powers of the President, which the incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hopes to become again, will be virtually unlimited.

Popular vote is almost a year and a half before the originally planned date — the elections in Turkey were held in November 2019. According to Erdogan, this decision is due to the fact that the country urgently needs to go to the Executive presidency.

However, the result of the upcoming elections is not predetermined yet. The opposition took into account the mistakes of the past and act as a United front against the government of Erdogan, who is the head of state for over 15 years.

Erdogan was appointed Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014, and in 2014 was elected to the presidency.

Erdogan’s blitzkrieg

Turkish sociological center Gezici reported that 10 days before the election, the rating of Erdogan fell 1.6% to 47.1%. This is not enough to win elections in the first round.

However, landslide victories, Erdogan has never won. In 2014 he was voted with 51.79 percent of the vote and the referendum last year the program supported 51,41%. However, repeated this success in this election, the big question, says researcher of the Institute of Oriental studies Ilshat Saitov.

“The opposition also made the right move. Last time, in 2014, the two parties put forward one candidate and he lost to Erdogan. Because when you find a consensus candidate, the most radical supporters of the party do not vote for them, because it does not represent their views, is a “middling”.

This time, each of the parties has nominated its candidate to no votes left in the Treasury Erdogan in the first round,” — said the expert.

For power with the incumbent President in the upcoming elections will deal a former physics teacher, the MP from the party of atatürk Muharrem ince, a former interior Minister Meral Aksener, who went into opposition, Kurdish candidate Selahattin Demirtas and the two candidates gaining in the polls less than one percent of the votes.

With the fall of the rating of Erdogan at the same time, the popularity of his main rival Muharrem ince support of 27.8% of the electorate, which is 2% higher than a week ago. The third most popular candidate Meral Aksener, according to polls, gaining 14.1 per cent of the vote, and Kurdish candidate — about 10%.

“Polls now show that 49% will vote for Erdogan in the first round and about 50.5 per cent in the second. But they come from ordinary situations and spreads about 16% of undecided votes conditional mathematical formula. However, it will play in the time of elections, it is not always clear. But it is clear that the battle between Erdogan and the opposition will go “head to head”, — says Ilshat Saitov.

If Muharrem ince will go into the second round, he will be able to win over the votes of Kurds and the majority of the votes of Aksener, whose voters, choosing from “two evils”, is unlikely to support Erdogan. The Islamists are also likely to support the opposition candidate, and in this case, the situation is unpredictable.

Vote for Erdogan and inje are equally split. “At least it would be if the elections will be fair and Erdogan will not use administrative resource” — the expert adds.

Otherwise, Erdogan can win even in the first round. If he wins, he’ll get a nice “bonus” for unscheduled elections — the Constitution now allows not to consider early elections for a full term. That is, he will be in charge of Turkey until 2029. “And in the case of conducting several early elections, Erdogan, if he is healthy, can stay in power until 2036-2037 year,” said the Saitov.

Parliament — the last chance of the opposition

From the point of view of the parliamentary elections looks all too predictable: the ruling justice and development party (AKP) for several years, is losing its popularity and support.

Indicative in this respect were the parliamentary elections of 2015 — then Erdogan’s party though, and took the first place received votes was insufficient to form a single-party government.

“By hook or by crook, they prevented the formation of a coalition government, and finally in November, they still took their voters (as a result of early elections in November 2015, the AKP won 317 seats in the Parliament against 258 received in the elections in June. — “Газета.Ru”.) But declining popularity, and it is clear that the life cycle of RPS already leans towards old age is linked with the economy, politics, and just the fact that in Turkey, except the Republican people’s party (CHP), founded by the first leader of Turkey, Kemal Ataturk, and the rest live long,” — says researcher of the Institute of Oriental studies Ilshat Saitov.

The term of office of members after the referendum was extended from four to five years, and the age limit for deputies has declined from 25 to 18. However, it gives more opportunities for Pro-government parties. Pro-presidential Party of justice and development and its yet informal leader Erdogan intend therefore to introduce an expanded Parliament (reform increased the number of seats from 550 to 600) its youth division.

The ruling party will be the nationalist movement Party (MHP), and Kurdish peoples Democratic party, the “Independent party of struggle” (HUDA PAR), the party “Fatherland” (Vatan), Republican people’s party, “Good party” and the Islamic welfare Party.

For the first time parties will be able to take part in the elections in the composition of the blocks. This benefits both the opposition and the party of Erdogan.

So, the ruling party stands together with the nationalists as “the Alliance of the people.” It is opposed by “the Alliance of the nation”, uniting the largest opposition force, IUU fishing and the “Good part” — with the Islamists of the welfare Party.

“They are together, it seems, can gain still a little more than the party of Erdogan — says Ilshat Saitov. — Chances to win parliamentary elections will be fair if the opposition a little bit more. How will they then be able to form a coalition — that is another question.”

In any case, the formation of the Cabinet will not be affected directly by Parliament, who would be in it no met. After the entry into force of the constitutional amendments to appoint and dismiss members of the Cabinet, only the President personally. The Parliament in this system, accordingly, will not be able to require Ministers report they will be responsible solely to the President.

In addition, the President will have the ability to set their own laws through Executive orders that will take, if necessary, to bypass the government and Parliament. The Grand national Assembly of Turkey (the official name of the Parliament), in turn, at any time by decision of the President can dissolve.

However, some leverage will remain in the hands of Parliament. First and foremost, is the possibility of impeachment.

The requirement of impeachment may be considered if it was supported by at least 301 deputies out of 600. For impeachment need the support of three fifths of Parliament — 361 MP.

It is for this reason Erdogan in the upcoming elections to ensure “the Alliance of people” have received more than half of the parliamentary seats. Even better would be if half will get it the Party of justice and development.

“Even after the transition to a super-presidential system, the Parliament retains quite a lot of power, and if Erdogan opposition President, it would give him a lot of trouble. The Parliament may pass laws that limit his power and to declare that the referendum was irregular, and so on. And from the point of view of legitimacy it will be a great indicator. In America they say Erdogan will be a “lame duck”” — that is, he won the elections, but the situation is very on the brink,” says Saitov.

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