The data available to the Agency for housing mortgage lending (AHML), indicate that in the last few months, the rate of cash loans the population is steadily increasing. As of early November, according to experts, the growth of this segment of the economy relative to the beginning of the year in terms of percentage has averaged 45%. Only by the end of September with a population already concluded more than 700 thousand mortgages, 16% more than in the same period in 2016. Also showing growth and the amount of such loans. So, if last year the average size fluctuated at the level of 1.7 million rubles, then they have achieved a weighted average of 1.83 million (+7%).
At the same time, interest rates on such loans, by contrast, has been steadily declining over the last two years. If in January 2016, banks issued loans of 11.2% on the purchase of new buildings and under 13.1% on the purchase of second-hand housing, as at the end of autumn, these values amounted to 9.4% and 9.6%, respectively. By the end of next year experts of Agency do not exclude the fall of the average annual interest rate to 8%. The share of overdue loans (over 90 days) also edged down to 2.39% in the mortgage portfolios of banks in October 2017, against 2.94 per cent a year earlier. While the Agency emphasized that in the short term there are no prerequisites for the emergence of the mortgage “bubble” similar to that provoked the global crisis in 2008, us, no, and the proportion of high-risk mortgage loans do not exceed 5% of total issuance.
However, the Central Bank these allegations and in a pretty good prediction, apparently does not agree. How else to explain the fact that in 2018 it plans to significantly tighten the requirements for banks issuing money to buy housing?
Under the impact of a mega-regulator in the first place risk of a credit institution offering citizens a mortgage with a small down payment. In a few weeks for such loans can be entered so-called “high risk factor”. If the amount of an initial payment of 10-20% of the value of this ratio can be 150% and if the contribution does not exceed 10%, and 200%. If you do not believe in the Central Bank, further results such mortgage loans (and their share of total issuance from January to August 2017 rose from 6.8% to 20.6%) will lead to a crisis of the banking system due to the fact that the majority of citizens will not be able to service the loans properly.
As representatives of “Metrium Groups”, a mortgage with a low initial fee (on average, 14% of the cost of housing) is the most popular among the citizens considering the purchase of housing projects in the so-called mass market. Here, its share is in the range 20-50%. Similar loans are also in the segment of high-budget housing, however, markedly less (a total of 20-30%). In the latter case, according to the Director TEKTA GROUP of Roman Sychev, the citizens take the credit for the maximum term just because I don’t want to withdraw from the cash turnover of their own business, substantial funds so that in principle increasing the size of the initial contribution of the special difficulties does not cause.
But in the mass segment, the implementation of the intentions of the Central Bank can lead to serious negative consequences. According to the testimony of General Director of “Metrium Groups” and member of the affiliate network of CBRE Natalia Kruglova, though banks and use sentences with a low initial payment, in most cases only as a tool to attract customers. For many citizens this loan option remains the only way to solve their housing problem, especially if the savings are not there in time. Therefore, if requirements for banks will be tightened, but that will provoke increase of a size of down payment, about 33% of potential home buyers in the Metropolitan area risk to remain even without the “straws”. In the best case they will have to postpone the purchase of housing as long as they will not be able to save enough for the initial payment amount. “Novomoskovsk” is the primary real estate market the weight of transactions for the acquisition of housing with those “high-risk” mortgage loans and even higher: according to the “Metrium Groups” it reaches 35%. And then there is loans no down payment. The share of such, according to realtors in some of the residential projects of the capital accounts for up to a quarter of all transactions with attraction of mortgage capital.
As says General Director of “New Vatutinki” Alexander Barb, in contrast to Moscow in its “classic” boundaries, where consumer interest in the new buildings over the last two years is increasing (albeit not as rapidly as we would like to developers — “SP”), even in the suburbs, not to mention the less-favoured regions across the country, the situation around the new housing is not as rosy and optimistic, the activity of the population is stagnating. The reason, according to experts, lies in the low incomes and high spending Russians. This imbalance does not allow them to save up enough for down payment money. Even those who are planning to use a mortgage selling available in the ownership of secondary property, he stresses, not always you can count on it, because the cost of second-hand housing is markedly reduced. Thus any tightening of the credit policy of Russian banks may be completely cut off from the “primary” about a third of potential buyers not only in the capital region, but throughout the country.
By taking such steps, even as some preventive measures against inflating the mortgage bubble, the Central Bank runs the risk of quickly move the market from euphoria to depression, concludes Natalia Kruglova, especially as the situation in this sector of the economy is far from critical. However, given the fact that the stiffness of the ongoing Central Bank policy has become traditional, the expert does not exclude that in one form or another, some preventive measures are still taken, with the result that the following year, the mortgage program with such a low (20%) of the “entry threshold” for initial payment will just disappear.
But hope, as is known, dies last, and to say goodbye to an affordable mortgage to the Russians, it seems too early. On Tuesday, November 28, Vladimir Putin at the meeting of the coordination Council on realization of national strategy of actions in interests of children proposed to implement a special program to provide mortgage loans to families who are born second or third child. The essence of it, clarifies the RIA Novosti, is that when getting or refinancing a loan such clients, the state will provide them with subsidies in excess of the rate of 6% per annum. The estimated start time of the program is January 1, 2018. Representatives of the largest players in the mortgage market have already hastened to declare their interest in this initiative. However, the head of the Directorate of mortgage lending of Bank “the Russian capital” Elena called Rozhneva potential borrowers not to forget that total family income must be sufficient to service such loan, and the cost of maintenance of children is constantly growing.