How it related to Russia today in the world, the position in which she has appeared, is not just the collapse of the foreign policy of Putin’s leadership. It is a threat to national security and the future of the country. The loss by Russia of the international political subjectivity, qualified her as a state of mafia and displacement on a distant world in the periphery will lead to the fact that our country will be treated as potentially draw a large territory, rich in natural resources.
In recent years, it was about some serious troubles: long-term effects of the collapse of relations with Europe and the world, about the inertia of confrontation, sanctions, which can last for a very long time. But now the “trouble” is moving into a new quality, which threatens the aggressive isolation from the civilized world space. Russia now watch her transform from a world power (albeit economically weaker, but politically and diplomatically significant, rich in resources and with investment term) in the global problem, a country with a zero or even negative reputation, which “hang” all the negativity in the world — from the production of fake news to chemical warfare agents.
For the last five years the Russian information space was so distorted their own propaganda and lies that many local fighters from the West just do not seem to understand what you’re dealing with. They require evidence in the “case Skripal” and chemical attacks in Syria, appeal to abstract justice and want the West to be impartial and objective court by European standards. But the West no one is going to even listen to anything like that. Putin’s foreign and domestic policy in recent years has led to the fact that the Russian state in the world now belong to the mafia group, the influence of which it is necessary to neutralize all possible ways.
Possible evidence of “Russian trace” in the case of poisoning Skripal in a normal situation would not be enough (at least yet), especially on Western legal standards. However, the anti-mafia is quite another matter. Generally speaking, if somewhere in Mexico or Colombia, blow the judge or something happens to a key witness, the politicians and society there is no question, in whose interest it is made. Information support of anti-mafia always directed toward the creation of an atmosphere of General intolerance, and practical policy it seeks to deprive the mafia of the key resources needed to continue its activities (see “Informed choice?” “Novaya Gazeta”, February 2015). In this situation, everything seems advantages: military force, the long arm of the security services, influence in certain spheres, turns out to be a problem. Because it is what the mafia strong-armed and has a long reach, scares and convinces her guilt stronger than any evidence. And look at this situation some kind of justice is totally meaningless. It is time to understand that there is no arbitrator, to which it would be possible to seek a fair solution.
You could still sneer at the fact that the UK representative to the UN Karen pierce once compared Russia with conandoylensis Professor Moriarty. But the recent statement by the Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin, which is almost verbatim repeated the new assistant to the President for national security John Bolton, the joke no longer holds: “the Russian government is involved in a number of malicious acts around the world, including the ongoing occupation of Crimea, incitement to violence in the East of Ukraine, supplying weapons and materials to the Assad regime that continues to bomb its own civilians, the attempt to undermine Western democracy and cybercrime”.
As the discussion of the “case Skripal” in the Organization for the prohibition of chemical weapons (OPCW) and other international institutions, in the situation that these institutions do not intend to play the role of an impartial arbitrator. And neither China nor anyone else will protect our country and to block unfavorable for us. Because the lack of reputation. Already works!
THE ILLUSION OF A GLOBAL PRESENCE
Of course, first in importance and time factor, which formed such a situation, the policy towards Ukraine. The Kremlin does not want to admit that the annexation of Crimea and the bloodshed in the Donbass — this is no achievement, and sources of serious problems. The West consistently shows hardness in relation to these issues, while more and more convinced that to rely on good will from the Russian side is not necessary. The result is predictable. Information about the meeting, “Norman Quartet” in Aachen without the participation of Russia is a very worrying signal about the transformation of our country in the direction of the conflict. From the Discussant Russia becomes a very awkward and very large, but the object.
At the same time, the situation in Syria, which is Russia’s trap, where she voluntarily climbed (see the punch, April 2017), it becomes a strong negative factor of direct action. A year ago, in April 2017, the trump after the alleged use of Syrian chemical weapons by the regime made the decision to strike on the basis of the Syrian air force. Then Russia was responsible for the actions of Assad, primarily as a guarantor of agreements on the destruction of Syrian chemical weapons signed during the Obama presidency.
In April of 2018, after reports of the use of sarin and chlorine in the Syrian city of Duma, the entire Western world was hit with accusations against Assad (trump in a tweet called the Syrian dictator “animal”), while publicly claiming direct responsibility of Russia for the deaths of dozens of civilians in Syria. And despite the warnings and even threats “to retaliate”, the 14th of April, forces of the United States, great Britain and France caused the coordinated strikes on Syrian-related facilities, according to Western intelligence, with the production of chemical weapons. Russia has responded by convening a meeting of the security Council and the endless propaganda stories on the Federal channels. Yes, even Putin called Erdogan.
Today the situation is much worse than a year ago. Thanks to the “case Skripal”, public opinion in the West is already prepared to accept bundles “Russia — chemical weapons”. If you do nothing (i.e. stick with current positions of Russia), the escalation can go up to the attacks of the Western coalition forces at our facilities in Syria. The events of 7 February this year in the area of Deir ez-Zor in Eastern Syria can be considered more distinct than a warning.
In General, the Syrian operation has become a critical weak point for Russia. Moreover, intervention in the middle East civil war turned them against us most of the Muslim world, increased terrorist danger in Russia creates a direct military threat from Central Asia (via Afghanistan, where militants have been coming in from Syria). Now it is obvious purely negative strategic implications of Putin’s efforts for the protection and preservation of Assad.
The current situation in Syria is forcing Russia to solve tactical problems to oust anti-Assad rebels from Aleppo and Eastern ghouta. And although there seems to be a short-term result, anyway, by and large, everything turns into a failure. The world does not perceive Putin’s Russia as perceived by the Soviet Union, but increasingly refers to our country as Iran or North Korea. The calculations that support the Syrian dictator will mark a global presence, as in Soviet times, and in addition distract attention from the situation in Ukraine, turned out to be illusions.
A STRATEGIC DEAD END
We can assume that the realization of this strategic dead-end became one of the sources of inspiration for Putin’s speech in the Arena in March of this year. However, in the U.S. the stories of the Russian President on supermaket think seem useful for them to bluff, despite the fact that surrounded by trump appears more and more the “hawks” that support confrontation with Russia. And even if the threat of a direct military confrontation in Syria, hope is not realized, the situation in Russia is extremely disadvantageous. The status of the state-mafia in the eyes of the West (and not only) will be constantly and powerfully working against Russia. Today in the West as the global leader focuses a large part of the world. The realization that in the middle of the XXI century will not remain developing countries and are only developed and undeveloped forever of the state makes most of the world exactly relate to the Western civilization and encourages to make every effort to join her — to have time to jump on the bandwagon.
The only thing that Putin can theoretically count on, is the possible weakening of the West, which is mired in its own problems, will gradually lose the lead. But even if this unlikely account in some degree justified, the Russian government will be in the company of Narendra modi, Erdogan and the like — close “circle of friends”, which will be constantly shrinking around the country, as the encirclement. Even XI Jinping will not be among them — he has his own program. Russia as an independent and strong country, China is not interesting and not needed. Even in 2015, are invited to the military parade in Beijing Putin was shown the whole column of military equipment, painted in winter camouflage. What do you think, where and with whom the Chinese are going to fight in the snow?
The loss by Russia of the international political subjectivity, qualified her as a state of mafia and displacement on a distant world in the periphery will lead to the fact that our country will be treated as potentially draw a large territory, rich in natural resources.