The pace at which the Russians withdraw their deposits from banks, afraid. People are experiencing something close to panic, the reasons for which they cannot rationally explain, but you feel instinctively that the ship is sinking.
The Russian banking system in January, faced with a powerful outflow of population. For the month from accounts of individuals flowed 453 billion rubles, said Tuesday the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Compared to January 2017 (155 billion) outflows accelerated threefold. He made up 45% of all revenue to accounts in December 2017.
Respondents “Reedus,” analysts see several reasons for the “flight of deposits,” which, corresponding in time, creating a synergy effect, only with a minus sign.
The first reason: the Russians have lost faith in the integrity of the financial system as such
In January there was the controversial decision of the Supreme court, which has allowed financial institutions not to reimburse the depositors money, if the Bank has any doubts as to the legality of their receipt. What “if”, sun explained that unties the hands of the banks to interpret the law as God put per capita.
The judgement of the Supreme court set a dangerous precedent, as now the banks can hold funds in, including bona fide clients on spurious grounds, and this gives opportunity for abuse, said, “Reedus,” a leading analyst of the portal BankoDrom Vyacheslav Putilov:
After all, if the banks really care about the cleanliness of the money they are supposed to require proof of their origin, not when the depositor demands their money back, and when he puts it on his account. However, I have not heard that the banks showed such scruples on credit operations.
In life while there are times when the money the person can form a legal way and to obtain documentary proof of their legal origin is impossible.
The second reason: you can claim back even taken from your Bank account money
In late January, the Deposit insurance Agency (DIA) mass beginning to file lawsuits against citizens who had to withdraw their money from deposits before “their” banks lost their licenses and were declared bankrupt.
ASV suspects such successful investors in collusion with managers of banks, that is the use of insider information. Courts claims from the DIA automatically satisfy the arguments of defendants not taken into account.
Court decisions on claims of ASV go beyond not just common sense, they go beyond the basic principle of law — the presumption of innocence, said, “Reedus,” a lawyer for financial and banking disputes Alexander Treschev:
Mass, one size fits all, the satisfaction of the DIA — blatant, shameless violation of the rights of citizens to dispose of the property. It’s my money, and nobody has to worry about at what point and for what reasons, I decided to dispose of them so and not otherwise!
Then, as ASV takes money from the citizens only on the basis of their assumptions, no different from the confiscation of property by the Bolsheviks a hundred years ago on the basis of “revolutionary consciousness”.
Such actions provoke ACB Bank customers not to sit idly by, waiting, not whether it is “their” Bank — some quite a prosperous Bank — next on the list of financial institutions that the Agency will try to “save” them.
The third reason: the Russians are not savings, they would now live
“The population loses the ability to preserve it”, — said Tuesday the analysts of Raiffeisenbank. According to them, the decline in real disposable income continues for four consecutive years and people are forced to eat into savings.
Despite the good reports of the Central Bank and Rosstat on the fact that inflation in Russia fell to a historically low level, this does not mean recovery of the economy. In a patient with fever, the temperature may also fall, not because he got better, but because he died. Feel the difference.
Formal-digit inflation can stay within the framework of the Central Bank, but since this figure is a mid — sized hospital, not all social groups this will be equally comfortable, said, “Reedus,” the Professor of International Institute of Economics and Finance Eugene Andreev:
It is well known that food prices are most sensitive to the poor, which in the cost structure of food is more than 50% of the costs. And the share of the population in Russia is gradually increasing. Accordingly, it is a little joy from the fact that the decrease in prices for coffee makers or TVs, because they don’t buy. And they buy mainly food products — those for which prices continue to grow at a faster pace.
Fundamentally ask the question: if rising incomes at the same rate? If Yes, then this is another process and then the report of the Central Bank can only rejoice. If not — then from a formal deceleration of inflation, the people neither hot nor cold.
Even according to the official, through his teeth accept data, in 2013 the incomes of Russians fell by 15.5%. After 2012 poor in Russia becomes more average by one million people annually.
According to the calculations of Ministry of economic development, the situation will deteriorate.
Reason the fourth: interest on deposits deprived of sense keeping the money on Deposit
By early February of 2018, the maximum yield of deposits in rubles in ten leading Russian banks for the first time in history fell below 7% per annum (according to CB).
For example, the savings Bank has on Deposit “Pay” the interest of 4.6%; Raiffeisenbank gives 5% for the top-up contributions from payroll clients and 5.7% for term deposits.
But the point here is not the greed of the bankers, said, “Reedus,” the head of the Department of studies of ARB Sergey Penkin:
Offering interest rates on deposits that are much higher than the maximum rate on deposits for the 10 largest banks set by the Central Bank, commercial Bank thereby creates additional risks for the whole chain of counterparties. The stronger the commercial Bank exceeds established by Bank of Russia the threshold, the more money he donates to the accounts of the Agency for Deposit insurance. That is, at the same time rising costs of the Bank — straight to the payment of the interest and indirect, on various charges.
This practice itself is to discourage banks hunting for overly high interest rates on deposits. And if the Bank is on the move is a sure sign that it is something that, against what some there costs seem to be the least of our problems.
For any Bank funds attracted from the population, is the most expensive resource. And if the Bank began to attract expensive resources, this means that getting cheap was for some reason impossible. In other words, other market participants have ceased to trust this Bank as a reliable partner. And financial market confidence can not be measured in any currency, it’s like the tail is either there or it is not.
Stagnant economy and lower interest rates, which banks do not get interest income will continue to put pressure on the profitability of credit institutions in the current year.