“Black Swan” took off. Sanctions lead to the inevitable destruction of the resource model of Russia, which was only possible in partnership with the West. The United States will never forgive Russia fitting over “the armor of the USSR”, the annexation of Crimea, Donbass and Syria and most importantly — international denunciation of the United States. Despite the swing “better-worse” relations with the West will only get worse.
The US is trying to bankrupt us, forcing international markets. Grasping at straws, the liberal elite believed that the sanctions would be symbolic. But not the Soviet Union, and America lowered the iron curtain over Russia’s biggest companies in the sanctions list, prohibiting its contractors any transactions with them. Then, at least in part, they can join and their satellites. Now our ability to conclude a deal to supply the raw material, to obtain loans in foreign currency should be narrowed.
Now there is a bill about working with our debt, but most importantly (and what the press practically writes) — the sanctions against the 7 largest Russian state-owned banks (subsection (C): Sberbank, VTB, Gazprombank, Bank of Moscow, Vnesheconombank, Rosselkhozbank, Promsvyazbank). It is proposed to introduce locking operations, freezing the accounts and property in the United States. Here’s a snippet: “(2) exercise all powers granted to the President by the International Emergency Economic Powers Act… to the extent necessary to block and prohibit all listed in subsection (C) if such property and interests in property are in the United States, come within the United States, or are or come within the possession or control of a United States person.transactions in all property and interests in property of one or more of the financial institutions”.
These measures will mean a displacement from the dollar area, with disastrous consequences for the financial sector and international trade. And although the U.S. Treasury already two times in February and 11 April, spoke about the careful application of sanctions in respect of the national debt, the temptation of their use will continue will depend on the international situation. These measures can continue to bring down our markets. The United States are positional, then pulling, but letting go of the string, but the trend is absolutely clear: the wearing down of the enemy.
Secondly, we are trying to draw in the arms race and of any regional conflict, either in Syria or in the Ukraine. All these methods have been successfully tested in the 80-ies, bringing the USSR to collapse and bankruptcy.
When people do not learn the lessons of history is bound to repeat itself. Russia realized that to live without freedom and without faith it is impossible, but she forgot about their past relationships with the West about the fruits of liberal capitalism, and the life of the elites out of the people, leading us to the 19th-early 20th century to the 1917 revolution, Our elites were unable to estimate the long-term risks of conflict of 2014 and to do something significant for diversification and sovereignty of our economy. The course of “lost time” continues. With the current aggravation of the situation in Syria through the “TV mass” can so distract people from their real problems, that their solution space will not be simple. We have not shown how to live our shithole and dying company towns and village, but we see the lead (not always important) all over the world and “cool video”.
Further deterioration of relations with the United States may cause the seizure of our assets abroad, and since we are net lenders, even retaliatory confiscation of foreign assets in Russia will end up losing. Given the many trillions of assets of our elites abroad — it is even worse. Hereinafter, the disconnection from SWIFT, and possibly trade embargo, which, with our total import dependence will end badly. War with the United States in world trade and Finance, where “uncle Sam” holding all the threads in his hands is problematic.
In similar conditions in Russia are not left with any options other than making a left turn and partial use of the experience of the USSR. So, you need to go in a totally different way.
The only thing that really would cause a huge blow to the West course on the sovereign economy, the displacement of the dollar and the Euro from the internal circulation, the imposition of severe foreign exchange restrictions, to stabilize the currency market, creation of conditions for normal emission rate, stimulate economic growth. Attempts to redirect the flow of raw materials in Asia and China will not give the desired result. These resources, it’s time to redirect not to export, and infrastructure development and industrial development of the country, which will create tens of millions (promised by the President) jobs, including staying in the stagnation of production. Our path is the path of industrialization of the USSR and current China. Our import substitution slips: import is still growing (see: “Imports soared, pointing to the failure of the policy of import substitution”.) Need not blah-blah, but the real program of industrialization, import substitution and the displacement of economic agents in the West of our economy. Nationalization of key assets, returning resources are fully under state control.
In one of the articles of the author (Russian: “new Soviet Union” or colony of the United States, the EU and China?) the detail shows that our country is economically a semi-colony of the West. Our investments in securities U.S. government — $ 93,8 billion, So what we want to achieve in conflict with him when our financial system, trade and industry are controlled by representatives of “partners”, and the assets of our elites are still over the hill? The risk of conflicts within our elite is extremely high.
Some believe that the current liberal model can exist indefinitely. The election results do not say about anything: as a SIGN of FUTILITY, the problem rained just after them. We are witnessing the funeral of the liberal cycle of Russian history. It is necessary to solve real problems, otherwise life will unfold before us with all its horrifying truth, we will receive a new 1998 People are waiting for the promised President of the new economic policy.
The future is not nobody knows. But we must assume that Fate has laid your hands on what is happening with us. Crimea, Donbass and Syria the first step. The deterioration of relations with the West the second. Reliance on “friendship” with trump and making it a “black mark” is the third. The fire in Kemerovo — the fourth. The latest sanctions and the collapse of the markets — the fifth and many others. Sixth will be sanctions against our national debt, banks and the financial crisis. I don’t remember such passion, as now, was in Soviet times: it only points to the analogy of the Cuban missile crisis. But if not sanctions, then what about our rock elite, which is with terrible persistence guarded by liberal capitalism. So you need to elite finally heard the bell of doom? Direct conflict with the West? If we do not turn back from the disastrous path of peripheral liberal capitalism, the problem will grow like a snowball.
The fire in the “Winter cherry” is symbolic. Not only showing us the “head”, what is the real terrible for the victims, are symbols of our economy, greed, corruption, immorality and irresponsibility. This is another letter of Fate to us and our elites. The firefighter, who asked not to walk the short path is our guide, pretending not to understand the calls of hundreds of experts pointing the other way and deaf to the needs of his people. Whether the President listens to his adviser Glazyev? Closed rooms, the smoke, fire and victims are we trapped in a raw cell.
If the powers have not used their country as a cash cow, and fulfilling her duty, she actively developed her — everything was different. There are no sanctions for a strong and independent Russia can not be applied (!). Now the crumbling state of the major oligarchs: but the government is not going to help. Risk management does not exist in Russia. Our elites have everything to lose.
The laws of good and evil really exist, and every injustice is punished sooner or later. You need to remember the lessons of 1917, when the centuries-old neglect of the interests of the Russian people caused a terrible storm led to the destruction of the power elites and even the middle class who had lost everything. We quote Metropolitan Anthony (Khrapovitsky), the spiritual person, who was to testify about “Russia which we lost”, but in 1899 wrote about something else (!): “It is not the people, but a rotting corpse, which is rotting takes over your life, and live it, and there are only moles, worms and filthy insects, rejoicing in the fact that the body was dead and rotting, because in a living body there would be no satisfaction for their greed, there would be no life for them”. The picture is familiar, isn’t it?
In the near future the leadership of the country has two prospects — first: continue to wander in the liberal maze by adapting a raw materials economy to the sanctions conditions, covering the internal problems of the Patriotic fervor that will end large-scale financial and social crisis. And the second way, chosen after the collapse of 1998 — the formation of a left government (then Primakov), who brought the country out of crisis and creating her trend growth in the 2000s. This way the displacement of the liberal elite and the formation of new, would ensure a continuous economic growth of 7-10% over the next several decades, bringing us to the position of the 3rd economy of the world and returning most of the former allies.
At the moment the likelihood of this scenario is low, as the backbone of our economy, the oligarchs, the major state-owned banks, commodity companies and bureaucratic body does not want any change. They are sorely afraid that the development will deprive them of power. But may occur, and we are close to it, regardless of the desires of the ruling class, the development strategy will be unique. We are witnessing a major historical scrapping, comparable to the collapse of 1985 and 1992, and the ruling class could do nothing to save the falling building commodity economy. The earlier you come the insight, the less loss.
Since the early 19th century Russian history is clearly on the cycles of liberalism — anti-liberalism. The longest cycle of the Reign of Nicholas I — 30, I. Stalin ruled the USSR for 28 years. Since 1992 it’s been a long 26 years, but if we assume that in 1985 — for over 33 years. It follows that with overwhelming probability in the near future will start anti-cycle and we are witnessing since 2014 at his birth. Yet none of the leaders in Russia has not been able to be both the Builder of the old and new cycle. History always assigns this role to different people. The deterioration in the external environment and the relevance of patriotism, which is still (!) not entered (but will penetrate) into the economy, will inevitably entail a change of economic policy.
Another law in our history at which we now find ourselves — the external threat always (!) called upgrades. The danger of the conflict in Syria that concede we can’t, but the superiority of the enemy forces could lead to a scenario of the Russo-Japanese and Crimean war. This is the path to the internal crisis and the collapse of the current system (see the revolutions of 1905, 1917). In any case the growing tensions with the West and their policy of ousting the us from foreign markets will require the mobilization of the economy, real modernization and restructuring of the resource model. All roads lead to one point, collapse is impossible.
Of the USSR the second power in the world, controlling half the planet was so strong and independent that all the current ball of confusion would have been absolutely impossible. Remember who were Your ancestors and become finally as strong and selfless as they were they. The export of raw materials and the strangely obsessive fixation on oil and gas on the background of poverty of the people, destroyed industry, the lack of normal jobs, related demographic problems and unprecedented in our history of economic dependence on the West is the path to the destruction of the Russian civilization.
D. trump does not understand what he is doing, baiting the associated bear: but when he will break their fetters, the whole world will be affected by the Russian power. Can some time to deceive the people, but to deceive the Story is impossible.